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Week 11 Where to Put em

November 18, 2009

fantasy football rankings
Where to Put 'em is the Fantasy Football Nerd's look at the best and worst matchups for Week 11 of the NFL season. Decisions are based upon the FFN rankings and matchup analysis. Given the known conditions, these matchups are the ones to watch and/or avoid.


Put 'em In The Game: Matt Schaub
He's fresh off a bye week and facing the league's 2nd worst pass defense in the Titans. Schaub comes into the Week 10 rankings at #8 among QB's. Schaub's best game of the year came against Tennessee in Week 2 where he threw for 357 yards and 4 TD's. While he may not beat those numbers, he's sure to come close.
Put 'em In The Game: Eli Manning
Eli's coming off a bye week so he and the Giants should be well rested. They face the 28th-ranked Atlanta pass defense which has given up plenty of points to opposing QB's over the past few games. Look for a good game from Eli this week.
Put 'em In The Game: Ricky Williams
Ronnie Brown is out for the season making Williams the "Go-To" guy in Miami. He makes his FFN Top 10 debut this week coming in at #6 among RB's. Carolina is 25th in the league against the rush. It'll be fun to watch Williams run wild.
Put 'em In The Game: Kevin Smith
Coming in at #7 among RB's this week, Kevin Smith is coming off a run of poor games. That should change this week against a tired Cleveland run defense that's ranked 30th in the league.
Put 'em In The Game: Calvin Johnson
Megatron has basically been a megabust but that will change in this epic battle between two bottom-of-the-barrel teams. Johnson is healthy and will have a good game as long as his QB has time to throw.
Put 'em In The Game: Sidney Rice
Sidney Rice rises to #9 on the FFN wide receiver rankings. He has also risen to #1 among all wide receivers in the NFC. He hauled in 201 yards against Detroit. Seattle may not be Detroit, but their pass defense is not that far off at 22nd in the league.
Put 'em In The Game: John Carlson
John Carlson has a great matchup against the Vikings who have given up 7 TD's to TE's this season (2nd most in the NFL). Hasselbeck's going to be throwing a lot in this game and Carlson's an attractive option.
Put 'em In The Game: Kellen Winslow
New Orleans hasn't allowed a TD to a TE yet this year and has generally been pretty tough on tight ends. Winslow is the best offensive threat in Tampa Bay and if anyone's going to see the endzone, it's going to be him. He hauled down 7 receptions for 102 yards last week in Miami and 4 receptions for 57 yards and a score against Green Bay. The Saints are 19th against the pass and Winslow is 4th among TE's in this week's consensus rankings. This is my sleeper pick for the week.
Put 'em In The Game: Brent Celek
Brent Celek is quietly becoming one of the best fantasy tight ends in the NFL. He's ranked #5 among TE's this week and his standard deviation is small enough to conclude that there's solid consensus on him against Chicago who has struggled against TE's as of late.
Put 'em On The Bench: Matt Cassel
Dwayne Bowe is out for the next 4 weeks which means that Chambers will be a focus for opposing defenses. Unfortunately for Matt Cassel, he's facing the Steeler's D this week that will be itching for a fight after losing to Cincy. Cassel's a tough play this week.
Put 'em On The Bench: Matt Ryan
In the last 5 games, Matt Ryan has thrown 10 interceptions and fumbled the ball twice. This week he faces a rested Giants team that is the 3rd toughest defense on opposing QB's allowing a paltry 185 yards/game. He's also playing without Michael Turner which will hurt his numbers this week. There isn't much going in his favor right now.
Put 'em On The Bench: Joseph Addai
Joseph Addai comes in this week at #23 among RB's as he prepares to face a very tough Baltimore defense. The Ravens allow an average 93.9 yards on the ground this year and 77 yards on the ground when playing at home. That's tough to beat and Addai won't be throwing any TD's with a bum finger.
Put 'em On The Bench: Reggie Bush
Reggie Bush is coming off a fantastic 2-score game last week. His 83 yard, 1 rushing TD, 2 receptions (15 yards) and 1 receiving TD performance was the best of the season. He's been average at best for the eight other games. Expect Pierre Thomas to shoulder most of the workload this week against a weak Tampa Bay defense.
Put 'em On The Bench: Miles Austin
Miles Austin came out of nowhere to produce two monster games and put together a streak of 5 games with at least 1 TD. That ended last week in Green Bay where he was held to 4 receptions for 20 yards. He had 1 big reception the week prior for 49 yards against Philly. This week he faces a Redskins defense that ranks 5th in the league in allowing yards to opposing wide receivers.
Put 'em On The Bench: Devin Hester
Ranked 33rd among wide receivers this week, Devin Hester's value has dropped significantly with Cutler's poor play. Even if Cutler turns it around this week, Hester's going to be spending a lot of time lining up against Asante Samuel, one of the premier CB's in the league. Conventional wisdom would dictate that this isn't the week to start Hester.
Put 'em On The Bench: Zach Miller
The Raiders have finally come to their senses and have benched JaMarcus Russell. I'm not ready to raise Miller's stock yet - not in that offense but I'm more optimistic.
Put 'em On The Bench: Benjamin Watson
Other than Week 1, Ben Watson has been a disappointment even on such a high-powered offense. The Jets are ridiculously tough on opposing TE's. Watson has average to below-average performances against mediocre defenses. FFN sees Watson as the 16th best TE this week.

Comments

fourocreek
November 19, 2009

I don't think overall matchups apply to Miles Austin. He is inconsistent because his O-line and quarterback are inconsistent. I'm being totally objective on this point. (Not a Cowboys fan) If Manning is throwing to him, he's a Pro Bowler. If Romo faces a lesser D-line or secondary, Austin shines. He's a go-to guy, now that he's proven himself.

Nerd
November 19, 2009

You could certainly be correct and Austin has a monster game. Anything can happen and oftentimes conventional wisdom goes right out the door.



The Manning argument is a creative one and difficult to argue. It could certainly happen. I'm not sold on Austin though and here's why. When I look at his good games this year, they were against KC, ATL, and SEA. Not the toughest defenses in the NFL. He didn't deliver when he had a tough matchup: 1 rec/20 yards against the Giants, 3 for 19 against Denver, 1 for 49 (+score) against Philly, and 4 for 20 against the Packers. Washington is 1st in the league against the pass allowing a mere 162 yards/game and 5th in the league against WR's.



You made an interesting statement. "If Romo faces a lesser D-line or secondary, Austin shines."...but that's all about the matchup, isn't it? Marshall may have gone off on Washington, but that doesn't make the Redskins a walk in the park. It's a tough matchup. Austin could certainly do what Marshall did, but I simply don't think the odds are with him.



If I'm wrong (hey, it happens!), I'll gladly own up to it after the game.

fourocreek
November 22, 2009

True, but look at Romo's stats for Austin's poor games too. Check his rating, sacks, and picks.

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