August 2008 Blog PostingsPre-season AnalysisAugust 29, 2008 0 Total Comments With the start of the regular season right around the corner, here's a glance around the league (in alpha order) prior to showtime. Every team has at least 1 good fantasy player and you'll find the top 4 from every team listed below along with a quick Analysis of what you can expect starting Week 1. There's bound to be some disagreement so send me your shouts, but be prepared to backup your claims. Enjoy! Arizona CardinalsTop Players1. Larry Fitzgerald 2. Anquan Boldin 3. Kurt Warner 4. Edgerrin James Analysis: Assuming Warner is the starter, he's definitely a fantasy starter and Fitz and Boldin's values increase. Edge's value has been diminished over the second half of last season and I don't expect that to change. Atlanta FalconsTop Players1. Michael Turner 2. Roddy White 3. Matt Ryan 4. Jason Elam Analysis: This is the Michael Turner show this year. He looked fantastic during the pre-season and hopes are high that he'll continue that pace. White's value is up in the air with Matt Ryan behind center. Baltimore RavensTop Players1. Willis McGahee 2. Derrick Mason 3. Todd Heap 4. Ravens DEF Analysis: If the O-Line can get it together, McGahee should do quite well. Both McGahee and Heap are expected to start Week 1. Buffalo BillsTop Players1. Marshawn Lynch 2. Lee Evans 3. James Hardy 4. Trent Edwards Analysis: Lynch is the definitely the centerpiece here but may have difficulty if Edwards can't keep defenses honest. Lee Evans can be a fantasy stud IF he can find some consistency, which has always been a problem with him. Carolina PanthersTop Players1. Steve Smith 2. Jonathan Stewart 3. DeAngelo Williams 4. Jake Delhomme Analysis: Certainly for the first two weeks, Muhsin Muhammad is worthy of being listed, but I just can't see him as a top fantasy WR once Smith comes back. Delhomme and Smith are an incredible combination, but are terrible without one another. Smith's value tanked last year after Delhomme's injury. He rarely got looks, but things should be back to normal this year. If RB-by-committee is prevalent here, Williams and Stewart are a toss up. Chicago BearsTop Players1. Chicago DEF 2. Matt Forte 3. Devin Hester 4. Greg Olsen Analysis: The D should be tough again this year. The Offense is less than thrilling. Forte will be the primary back to start the season. Hester will work in WR duties and has the potential to be explosive, but I'm not betting the farm on it. Olsen could have a breakout year and is poised to shine in an otherwise lackluster offense. Cincinnati BengalsTop Players1. T.J. Houshmandzadeh 2. Chad Johnson 3. Carson Palmer 4. Rudi Johnson Analysis: Call 911 because the Bengals could very well be an offensive car wreck. Housh and Ocho Cinco are fantasy staples, but both are a hit away from missing games. In fact, I would bet the farm that Johnson (playing with a torn labrum) misses at least 2 games this year. Palmer's value goes up if his two star wideouts can remain healthy. Rumors continue to circle around Rudi. Who knows where he'll end up. Walking papers could be right around the corner. Cleveland BrownsTop Players1. Braylon Edwards 2. Jamal Lewis 3. Kellen Winslow 4. Derek Anderson Analysis: Say what you will about Lewis, but I think he'll put last year's numbers to shame. He gets a ton of yardage after the hit and he'll do very well this year. Start him without hesitation. Anderson and Edwards should put up some great numbers this year and should also be started without hesitation. Dallas CowboysTop Players1. Marion Barber 2. Tony Romo 3. Terrell Owens 4. Jason Witten Analysis: The Cowboys are once again the team to beat. The Top 4 I list are all fantasy studs. Barber will no doubt put up serious numbers this year. Romo under center just begs fantasy leagues to throw points at T.O. and Witten. Crayton has been given the nod and could be a sleeper. Denver BroncosTop Players1. Selvin Young 2. Brandon Marshall 3. Jay Cutler 4. Tony Scheffler Analysis: This is Cutler's coming out year and both Young and Marshall will be beneficiaries. Detroit LionsTop Players1. Kevin Smith 2. Calvin Johnson 3. Roy Williams 4. Jon Kitna Analysis: No, it's not a typo. I would put Calvin Johnson just ahead of Roy Williams for fantasy owners this year. I know Johnson still has to prove himself, but I think you'll see that this year. Green Bay PackersTop Players1. Ryan Grant 2. Greg Jennings 3. Donald Driver 4. Aaron Rodgers Analysis: If Rodgers performs poorly (I already predicted an injury by Game 2), expect defenses to stack the box making it difficult for last season's breakout Ryan Grant. If Rodgers shows he belongs as the starting QB, Jennings and Driver should have great years, however don't expect Jennings to have a repeat of last year. Houston TexansTop Players1. Andre Johnson 2. Matt Schaub 3. Owen Daniels Analysis: I only list 3 players here because I don't think Brown or Green will be outstanding and who knows which one will still be there? Green's injury-prone and I wouldn't start him unless you are in a very, very deep league. Expect Schaub and Johnson to have great years and they're definitely the show to see in Houston. Indianapolis ColtsTop Players1. Joseph Addai 2. Peyton Manning 3. Reggie Wayne 4. Marvin Harrison 5. Dallas Clark Analysis: I make up for only listing 3 players for Houston by listing 5 here. All are perennial favorites and worthy of starting in your leagues. Jacksonville JaguarsTop Players1. Maurice Jones-Drew 2. David Garrard 3. Fred Taylor 4. Jerry Porter Analysis: Jones-Drew is the catalyst and will be a go for Week 1. Garrard could have a good year if his receivers could just stay healthy. Kansas City ChiefsTop Players1. Larry Johnson 2. Tony Gonzalez 3. Dwayne Bowe 4. Brodie Croyle Analysis: Johnson will be the jewel in this offense, but I wouldn't expect him to reach the fantasy levels of the past. His yards per carry have decreased but he'll be expected to carry another heavy workload. Use him, but control your expectations and you'll be happy. Miami DolphinsTop Players1. Ronnie Brown 2. Ricky Williams 3. Ted Ginn Jr. 4. Chad Pennington Analysis: This is one puzzle I'm having difficulty putting together. Brown or Williams? Who knows right now. Chad is Chad - don't expect much even in a warmer climate. Minnesota VikingsTop Players1. Adrian Peterson 2. Bernard Berrian 3. Vikings defense 4. Sidney Rice Analysis: Tarvaris Jackson will be under center in Week 1, but this show belongs to AP. Peterson should have an incredible year, and combined with one of the toughest defenses in the NFL, the Vikings could be the team to beat in the NFC North. New England PatriotsTop Players1. Tom Brady 2. Randy Moss 3. Wes Welker 4. Laurence Maroney Analysis: Pick a target Tom - every one of them is a stud. Even if Brady doesn't come close to last year's numbers, he'll still be the #1 QB in the NFL. Moss and Welker are both set to start and will produce great stats this year. Maroney will thrive this year as defenses worry about being burned by yet another Brady-Moss TD. New Orleans SaintsTop Players1. Drew Brees 2. Marques Colston 3. Reggie Bush 4. Jeremy Shockey Analysis: Brees will put on an airshow this year with three great targets in Colston, Bush, and Shockey. Combine all that talent with a fairly easy schedule and you're looking at a recipe for success. New York GiantsTop Players1. Brandon Jacobs 2. Plaxico Burress 3. Eli Manning 4. Giants DEF Analysis: The Giants Defense took a hit with Osi's injury, but they're still mean. Hopefully, Jacobs and Bradshaw don't share too much time in the backfield. I was shocked to see the Giants win the Super Bowl and would be even more shocked to see them there again this year. Eli is no Peyton and should be drafted as such. Plaxico will start Week 1 and should perform well this season. New York JetsTop Players1. Thomas Jones 2. Brett Favre 3. Laveranues Coles 4. Jerricho Cotchery Analysis: Don't expect 4,100+ yards out of Favre this year, but he's still a #1 fantasy QB and he brings up the values of everyone else. Jones should flourish as opposing defenses will be kept honest with the ole' gunslinger behind center. Oakland RaidersTop Players1. Darren McFadden 2. Ronald Curry 3. Justin Fargas 4. Javon Walker Analysis: While Fargas is #1, McFadden has so much more upside to him and I think he'll outperform Fargas in the same way that I picked Johnson over Williams in Detroit. Change is coming. Philadelphia EaglesTop Players1. Brian Westbrook 2. Donovan McNabb 3. Reggie Brown 4. DeSean Jackson Analysis: Curtis doesn't make the list with his hernia surgery, and probably shouldn't be started by fantasy owners once he returns this season. Jackson has been a pleasant surprise and I'd expect that to continue as he matures. There's a good supporting cast in Philly, but the star of the show is Westbrook and he won't disappoint. Pittsburgh SteelersTop Players1. Ben Roethlisberger 2. Willie Parker 3. Santonio Holmes 4. Hines Ward Analysis: Parker isn't the stud he used to be and probably won't be in the Big Ben show. Roethlisberger is a target for every defense and there's good reason for that. Expect him to put on an aerial display this year. San Diego ChargersTop Players1. LaDainian Tomlinson 2. Antonio Gates 3. Chris Chambers 4. Philip Rivers Analysis: There's a reason LT is ranked first on the Nerd - he's consistently great. Gates may not be in a league unto himself, but he's still one of the best. Not mentioned but certainly worthy is the Charger Defense. San Francisco 49ersTop Players1. Frank Gore 2. Vernon Davis 3. Isaac Bruce 4. Bryant Johnson Analysis: If you're in a PPR league, Gore should play out nicely for you. O'Sullivan will be under center and will hopefully give Gore some breathing room. Mark my words: this is the year that Gore finally goes double digits in the TD count. St. Louis RamsTop Players1. Steven Jackson 2. Torry Holt 3. Marc Bulger 4. Randy McMichael Analysis: Now that the contract issues have been resolved, Jackson is a must-start in an offense that revolves around him. He can catch. He can run. He's a load to bring down. Yep - sounds like another fantasy stud season for Jackson. Seattle SeahawksTop Players1. Matt Hasselbeck 2. Julius Jones 3. Nate Burleson 4. Seahawks DEF Analysis: Hasselbeck will be throwing the ball Week 1 and Burleson should be a primary target with Branch and Engram out for at least the first few weeks. Jones is good, but sharing RB duties with Morris diminishes his value some. Tampa Bay BuccaneersTop Players1. Earnest Graham 2. Joey Galloway 3. Warrick Dunn 4. Jeff Garcia Analysis: Not much to get excited about here, but Graham and Galloway are always interesting to watch. Both are coming off last season where several games were good performances. That should repeat again this year. Tennessee TitansTop Players1. LenDale White 2. Chris Johnson 3. Vince Young 4. Justin Gage/Justin McCareins Analysis: White and Johnson will most likely share RB duties potentially diluting their values. Gage and McCareins are both talented enough to make Vince Young look good at times. Crumpler's value is up a bit after his departure from ATL. Washington RedskinsTop Players1. Clinton Portis 2. Chris Cooley 3. Jason Campbell 4. Santana Moss Analysis: Gotta love Portis. He'll have lots of playing time and should see quite a few touches this year. Cooley is a great TE to have on your team, but the rest of the Redskins are just bench fillers. Moss was a disappointment last year and will most likely be again this year. "Consistency" is NOT his middle name. Campbell is average and will put up average numbers. The Saga of the Brett Favre JerseyAugust 28, 2008 4 Total Comments A long time ago, in a galaxy far far away, an order was placed with NFLShop.com for a Favre Jets jersey. The saga begins normal enough with the announcement of a trade between Green Bay and New York for an NFL icon. Shortly after the announcement, our hero decides to place an order for the already-advertised jersey. Admittedly, the order wasn't placed until the day AFTER the announcement. New Feature: Today in the NFLAugust 25, 2008 1 Total Comments There's a new feature to the Nerd. Today in the NFL is a collection of the day's happenings around the league. It's a great spot to take a look at the day's events and incredibly useful if you're watching your league's waiver wire. If you're in a competitive league, it's important to learn about injuries and updates as they happen. Enjoy. 49'ers Making MovesAugust 23, 2008 0 Total Comments Move over Alex Smith - the contest is over. JT O'Sullivan has claimed the starting QB spot in San Francisco. Expect his Nerd ranking to climb. "J.T. O'Sullivan will be our starting quarterback going into the season and I'm expecting him to succeed," said coach Mike Nolan. "I'm very confident J.T. is at the point where he's our best man for the job right now." Latest Musings From The NerdAugust 20, 2008 0 Total Comments Tis the season for drafts and you guys have created more Draft Buddies than I had anticipated. I hope you're finding it useful. It's awfully tough to have a great season if you've had a bad draft. Questions Regarding The Nerd RankingsAugust 14, 2008 3 Total Comments I got a great question from one of our regular users regarding some of the rankings and I think it's a great time to share my answer not only to Hart but also to everyone else. The Nerd goes to great lengths to correct bad data from the various sources it searches and it remains an evolutionary process. The more sites we aggregate...the more challenging the process. None of the sites adhere to any sort of standards. Some sites list the Packers as GBP, some as GB. Marion Barber vs Marion Barber III. LaDainian Tomlinson vs L Tomlinson. Marshall, Favre, Grant, & Jackson Latest UpdatesAugust 6, 2008 4 Total Comments Brandon Marshall has been suspended for the first 3 (possibly 2 if he fully complies with the suspension) regular-season games this year as a result of three arrests over the past year. This isn't a good start for the Broncos or Marshall who had over 1,300 yards receiving on 100+ receptions last year. Fantasy owners can lump Marshall and Steve Smith in the same boat - they're both exceptional players who will be drafted but owners will have to wait for production until week 3. Favre Reinstated. Will report to camp Monday.August 3, 2008 0 Total Comments Anybody who has ever played poker knows that eventually your hand is going to get called. The hand is being called in Green Bay as Favre has been officially reinstated and will report to training camp tomorrow at noon. His plane is expected to land in Green Bay at 5:30 pm where tonight's Family Night Scrimmage is scheduled to be played before 60,000+ fans. Favre is not expected to be at the game tonight. Smith and Favre UpdatesAugust 3, 2008 0 Total Comments Steve Smith has been suspended for the first 2 regular season games as punishment for fighting with teammate Ken Lucas. It will be interesting to see how the Nerd's draft rankings differ on Smith over the next few days. I can't imagine that his value is going to go up at all. Steve Smith sent homeAugust 1, 2008 0 Total Comments Anybody who had Steve Smith on their team last year is already used to disappointment. Today he apparently got into a fight on the sidelines with fellow Panther Ken Lucas. Nobody's sure what caused the fight, but Smith's lack of control is disappointing. It wasn't the first time he's gotten into a fight with a teammate. Anthony Bright was on the receiving end of Smith's anger six years ago for which Smith received a one game suspension. No word yet on what the team's going to hand down for punishment, but we'll keep an eye on it. |
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