This just in. Carson Palmer has been dropped back to the 3rd QB spot in CIN. Ryan Fitzpatrick will start instead. The rankings don't show this last minute change so hopefully you're doing your research. If not, check NFL.com, FF Librarian, ESPN, etc.
This will lower the expectations for TJ and Ocho Cinco as well. You may be able to expect more out of the running game though. Projections for the rest of the Bengals aren't updated to reflect this change from the various sites.
Here's a new feature that I hope helps when making those tough gut-instinct decisions. I've implemented charting for every player to visually see the spread between the projections.
I've spent the past few nights working on this feature and quietly pushed it out last night. I rarely share the emails that I receive, but I wanted to share the first one that came in this morning.
Just wanted to drop you a line. I love this site: hats off to ya. Though I still bop between many fantasy sites, I have used FF Nerd exclusively for bench/ start rankings for the last two weeks.
I am really glad that you added the high/low feature this week. I think of it as an SPC control chart. I have McNabb and Cassel, and based on the raw average, I should have been starting Cassel. Seeing the wide spread on Cassel (which I knew on a gut level, because he is a huge question mark still), and the narrow range for McNabb, I decided to start Donovan. The experts have classed him as a more secure pick, with no irrational exuberance driving up his point value.
Keep up the great work. And may your teams win this week.
Leo
Leo hit on exactly the point I was hoping to make with the charting. The "experts" are never totally accurate. They can be just as hit-or-miss as you and me. But if you see a narrow range, there's a pretty good consensus regarding his probable outcome.
Thanks Leo. I couldn't have explained it better myself. On a side note, I have a similar situation in one of my leagues. I need to decide between Derek Anderson (Nerd Rank: 18) and Matt Cassel (Nerd Rank: 6). If Edwards could hold onto the ball, Anderson would be my gut choice because he has more than 2 games experience. Now, the lowest ranking for Cassel is roughly the same as the projection for Anderson, so I will yield this one to the "experts" and give Cassel a shot. I'll let you know how that one goes.
A big thank you to Leo and everyone else who has sent in their comments and suggestions. A number of the features you see on the Nerd are the result of their thoughts.
Good morning Nerds. Game time is less than 4 hours away, and if you intend on starting any Texans or Ravens, think again. Hurricane Ike will change your mind. The Baltimore-Houston game has been rescheduled for November 9th. Reliant Stadium has been damaged by the hurricane. Apparently parts of the roof have been blown off and the stadium is not safe for fans to enter.
A quick review of the individual projections across the network shows that not every site has updated their rankings to reflect this change. I have added an additional rule into the Nerd engine this morning to take this news into account. (I've been up for hours already...just couldn't sleep) Bottom Line: Replace your BAL & HOU players immediately. I guarantee you'll kick yourself in the backside if you leave them in your starting lineup.
It turns out that the Bengals will be affected by the change as well. The Bengals will play the Texans on October 26th and take their bye week on November 9th. The Texans and Ravens will take their bye weeks this week.
If you're thinking to yourself "#$!&. This ruins my week", remember that the folks in Texas aren't dealing with a fantasy dilemma. They've got real problems and some folks will have many, many ruined weeks ahead of them. Keep them all in your thoughts and prayers.
Daily injury reports are now available. Now that it's released, I'll be working on integration within the Nerd engine. For all of you using the API, the Injury Report will be available in the near future (gotta do the doc on it first).
Here's my opinion on injury reports. Nice to know, but unless it says that the player is out for sure, it's a toss up. If he's not likely to play, I'd probably pass on that player for the week, however, it's important to visit sites like NFL.com, ESPN, RotoNation, Fantasy Football Librarian, RotoWire, The Hazean, Bruno Boys, and FF Toolbox to get the additional analysis necessary to make a decision based on the extent of his injury. If the player is good to go, play him but perhaps you'll need to lower your expectations.
Most of the experts that the Nerd searches take these things into account, however, there's still some element of research involved on your part.
A couple of new changes over the past 24 hours. Some are internal and more internal changes are in the works (pretty boring if you're not a programmer). One of the visible changes is the Health Meter on the Sit/Start rankings.
Not all sites release their weekly rankings at the same time. The Health Meter will show how complete this week's index is. When it's full, all sites have been indexed.
Another feature that I'll release shortly is an Injuries report that I'll integrate into the projected rankings. I've got some more testing to do on that, but hope to have it available shortly.
On my to-do list is displaying the standard deviation for rankings by player. Because there's still some gut instinct involved in making your weekly picks, it may be helpful to see how close the experts are. It's an easy enhancement. Just need to make time for it.
I've disabled a number of the sites that the Nerd searches based upon their performance projections from last week. I'll continue watching their projections and can very easily add them back. There's one more that I may disable depending on how it's projections go this week. I've reviewed today's search index and they're not that far off so I'll give them another week.
This is also the first week where the individual source projections get weighted based on last week's performance. This will continue throughout the season.
I had to do a double take when I saw today's search index results. Seattle's Defense ranked #1? From 15 last week to number 1? Against Gore and the remaining 49'ers? I think Seattle will have a good week on D, but I'm not sure I would rank them #1.
As I looked at the individual source projections, I noticed that FOX ranks Seattle at #3 and CBS ranks them #1. CBS projects the Seattle D to have 2 interceptions, 1 forced fumble, 5 sacks, 1 defensive TD, and 368 total yards allowed. FOX projects 3 sacks, 1 interception, 0 TD's, and 293 yards allowed.
The other sites weren't that far off, all listing Seattle in the Top 8. So...Seattle it is. I'll be watching tomorrow to see how often changes occur during the week leading up to Sunday.
It's a good morning for some (unless you drafted Tom Brady). There were quite a few surprises yesterday that I think shocked a number of people.
I'll start by quoting an email I received this morning from one of our users.
"thanks for recomending Detriots defense? You Losers!".
Thanks Jon for your candid comments. I take them all - good and bad. Your comments are very valid and I'm continuing to enhance the Nerd search engine (more on that in a moment).
I think we all had high hopes (not 220 yards high!) for Michael Turner and all I can really say is "WOW". Nobody gave the Falcons much respect going into the first game and I think that was evident in the rankings, and many gave Detroit an edge expecting a lackluster performance out of the untested Atlanta QB and RB. Here's a quote from ESPN.com: "A rookie quarterback must have the Lions salivating. If they can stop Michael Turner early, they could have a very easy go of things." We were all wrong.
How about Steven Jackson? 14 carries for 40 yards. 3 receptions for 34 yards. 0 TD's. Not quite the stellar performance we expected for a guy the Nerd ranked #7 among RB's.
How about Joseph Addai? 10 carries for 44 yards. 1 reception for 3 yards. 0 TD's. The Nerd ranked him at #4.
Carson Palmer at #10 and McNabb at #11. Palmer tanked and McNabb lit up the air.
Cooley - 1 reception for 7 yards. Yep - that was it. Campbell seemed so flustered out there that he seemed to ignore one of his best weapons.
And, of course, the grand daddy of them all. Tom Brady. Ranked #3 for the week and 76 yards later, he's out.
FOX Sports ranked Cooley #4 among TE's and expected 50 yards out of him. Steven Jackson: #6 with 92 yards rushing.
The Nerd does nothing more than aggregate rankings from various experts who make their predictions based on the best possible data that they have. The Nerd now has a week of games on which to weight next week's predictions from these sources. If a source is off, future projections from that source will be modified. It's a dynamic thing that can change every day. Who said predicting the future was easy? No source will ever be 100% accurate simply because of the word: projection. There are companies with sophisticated software that simulate the games 10,000+ times trying to determine the most-likely outcome. Even they get it wrong.
Now, take a moment to look at Brett Favre's performance. Depending on your league's scoring rules, he was awfully close or right on target to his projections. In one of my leagues, he ended the day with 18.96 points. The Nerd projected 18.95.
The point is that this isn't an exact science. The Nerd engine will continue to learn and adapt past experience which is a complex undertaking and it will continue to get better as the season progresses. I know it's cliche, but "On any given Sunday..."
I think that's an appropriate title to this post. I'm watching in amazement at the constant change in projections on a DAILY basis. Surprisingly, even the top 5 player projections at each position change on a daily basis. I've made lineup changes in some of my leagues already and am going back and forth on a few more before the games start today.
In case you were wondering, yes, even I flip-flop on choices. I know what the Nerd says so I understand what the experts think, but even I have a gut feeling that some could be off. What will most likely happen is that I'll back off my gut feeling and go with the rankings, because logic will set in my head and I'll have no choice. Looking forward to seeing how it turns out.
Also - I wanted send a shout out to Andrew and the Fantasy Football Librarian. If you don't read FFLibrarian.com, I suggest you add it to your favs. It's a great read, and even better now that she offers her take on the Nerd (ok, so that last comment was a little biased)!
Move Over Big Auto
Ford and company - move over. Detroit is now Lions country. I don't recall the last time I saw Detroit listed so high in the rankings. As I mentioned in my pre-season analysis, I expected Calvin Johnson to have more impact than Roy Williams. A quick look at the Nerd rankings shows Johnson ranked #7 among WR's and Williams #13. Looks like others agree. The tires hit the pavement in 3 hours when the games start, so we'll see how Kitna and company work out.
The season officially starts tomorrow night when Washington visits Eli and company. Just as the Nerd searched 19 leading fantasy football sites for pre-season draft rankings, I'm happy to announce that the Sit/Start search engine rankings are now available. The rankings will update every day at 12:00 Eastern and will give you a cumulative rank as to the expected fantasy points each player will score.
Need help deciding who to start? Stuck between two players? Check the rankings to help you with your decision.
Once again the Nerd will do the searching for you and show the collective wisdom of both the leading mega-sites as well as the top independent sites (which often are far more accurate on a far more consistent basis).
And it's all available for the low, low price of...$49.99...$19.95...FREE!
I'm happy to announce that there's a new webservice available within the FantasyFootballNerd.com API. The Nerd searches weekly projections from the best fantasy football sites on the Net daily and this new functionality has been exposed through the API. The API is free to use, however I recommend that you cache the results locally instead of hitting the API with every one of your user requests. Along with the player rankings you'll find a list of the current week's games.
If you have any questions, please feel free to email me. Enjoy!
