October 2008 Blog Postings
October 26, 2008 0 Total Comments
Well, it's Sunday morning and kickoff is in 2 hours. Here's some of things I'll be watching for today in no particular order.
Steven Jackson - IS OUT TODAY. I have him in 2 leagues and would love to be able to play him this week. Gotta find a replacement. :-(
Winslow will be out this week.
Even with all the talent at WR, I like Jason Witten today. Brad Johnson's ability to go downfield is suspect and Witten knows how to get open. Is there any chance that Jessica Simpson could hook up Brad Johnson with one of her celebrity friends? Maybe that's what it would take for Johnson to up his play.
In Miami, Ronnie Brown and Anthony Fasano seem to top most of the consensus sites' Sit lists. I have to admit that I don't like either here (even though I have Fasano and no other TE to replace him with).
Washington takes on Detroit and that means the offensive studs should have a big day. Clinton Portis will have a big day, and the rest of the cast are starters as well.
Watch Lee Evans today against Miami. Trent Edwards should hook up with Evans to the delight of fantasy owners.
Marques Colston should benefit with the loss of Reggie Bush. Even though he hasn't produced yet for owners, this week should change that. I actually like Lance Moore here even better.
Matt Cassel had a great game last week, so does this mean he's a starter? Let's wait until this weekend to answer that. If he can come through, Moss and Welker will be the beneficiaries.
Thomas Jones should go wild today and sees his first #2 ranking on the Nerd. Kansas City gives up a whopping 195.5 yards on the ground so Jones should see a lot of yards. Favre should be slinging the ball around the field and the NYJ Defense should clamp down KC.
Fans in Philadelphia should rejoice. Kevin Curtis makes his return and will give McNabb another option to rookie DeSean Jackson. Oh yea, and Brian Westbrook is back!
LaDainian Tomlinson has been asking for more touches but I don't think he's going to have a monster game. He went #1 in most drafts, so you have to start him anyway, but temper your expectations.
Chris Chambers most likely won't play today, so Philip Rivers will have to spread the ball around to the rest of the cast.
On paper, JaMarcus Russell should have a decent game today against a Baltimore defense that has given up 546 yards through the air the previous two games. The experts don't think so however as Russell falls into the 28th position among QB's.
If you own Willis McGahee, today will be fun to watch. As long as he gets his carries, he should produce for you.
Jake Delhomme (#4 Week 8 Ranking) should be in the US Air Force because he's going to be dropping bombs all day against the Cardinals. Muhsin Muhammad (#23) and Steve Smith (his first #1 Nerd ranking!!) will spread out the field and Delhomme should be able to take his pick.
I have Jamal Lewis in my Stinky Tee Experts League and will be starting him again this week. I think the Browns will try to keep the game on the ground and Lewis will get plenty of touches.
Lewis could have a good day, but on the other side, Maurice Jones-Drew should have an even better game. The Browns can slow David Garrard through the air, but they'll have a much more difficult time slowing down MJD (ranked #10).
Santonio Holmes - won't be playing so put him on the pines.
Big Ben most likely won't be putting up numbers like in the past against a tough Giants D and that's why you'll see him ranked #12 among QB's this week. Willie Parker is out, but Moore is a suitable alternative again.
Frank Gore on paper looks like he could have a great time today. Most of the experts are pretty sour on the 49'ers, however I think with new coach Mike Singletary, the Niners will come out with something to prove and show the experts wrong. Just my opinion.
Turner the Burner will most likely fizzle this week against the Eagles who are guaranteed to be prepared for him.
I have a hard time believing Edgerrin James will have even a modest game today. Not against the Panthers D that will be shutting him down. Yes - they're that good.
Eli Manning's fall to #18 this week is indicative of the tough matchup he has this week. Plaxico's value is lower than normal as well, along with his pocketbook as the NFL continues to rack up fines against him.
Eli's brother isn't expected to produce much this week either but should fare better than Eli. Peyton is ranked #16 this week with experts predicting more turnovers. Sh*t rolls down hill and Harrison and Wayne won't benefit from Peyton's poor play.
Jeff Garcia should have a big day today. He's got at least 1 TD in every game he's played in this year and the Cowboys give up a decent amount of points to opposing QB's.
Joey Galloway is expected to play today, and he should have a big game.
Good luck today to all!
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October 20, 2008 0 Total Comments
As I wrote yesterday, it was my hope that the Packers organization would see fit to invite me back every week if Ryan Grant rushed for over 100 yards yesterday. Well, guess what? He did and scored his first TD of the season. I have never been to a losing game and my streak remains intact. The Packers have won EVERY game that I've been at. The Colts were definitely favored to win, but a strong Packers D prevented that from happening (along with my presence!!).
After the bye week, the Pack take on undefeated Tennessee. Coach McCarthy - I'll be waiting for your call.
I had to catch most of the action last night, but what a great day of football yesterday. Here are some of my favorites from yesterday.
- Lee Evan's one-handed TD catch.
- Clinton Portis ran for 175 yards and a TD.
- Adrian Peterson ran for 121 yds and 2 touchdowns in what was an incredibly high scoring game.
- Calvin Johnson defied all expectations with 154 yards receiving.
- How about Roy Williams? Nope - not yesterday. It doesn't look like the Lions missed him at all.
- Big Ben put up big numbers.
- Trent Edwards was great and makes the 5-1 Bills legitimate contenders this year.
- Tennessee remains undefeated.
- Reggie Bush is out for 3-4 weeks (ouch!!)
- Tony Romo suited up, but told the coaching staff he just couldn't go. I feel sorry for those owners who started him on false hope.
- Steven "It's About Time" Jackson rushed for 160 yards and three touchdowns!
- Jeremy Shockey got hurt again and is unsure if he'll play next week in London.
- Brodie Croyle was back...and is gone again. Turns out that he'll miss the rest of the season.
- While not really newsworthy, I want to highlight Dwayne Bowe. Virtually every major site put him on the Sit list. Here I defied the Nerd and went with my gut. Bowe has been very consistent every week and he didn't disappoint. Nothing sexy, but consistency is appreciated!
Best of all - we still have a stellar game to watch tonight. Enjoy the game and good luck!
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October 19, 2008 0 Total Comments
Good and bad news for me. The bad news is that I won't be able to watch the games today except for the opening kickoff. The good news is that I'll be watching my beloved Packers host the Indianapolis Colts this afternoon at hallowed Lambeau Field. I'll be starting Ryan Grant and hopefully my cheering him on will help him reach the century mark in yardage today. If he reaches that milestone, I hope the Packers organization will see fit to invite me back every week (it's still early in the morning - I know I'm dreaming).
What should we be watching for today? For starters, Tony Romo is expected to be active today, but he won't be the starter according to ESPN.com. Romo's streak of 32 consecutive starts ends today. He was at practice on Friday but did not participate in the team's drills. Brad Johnson (yes - that Brad Johnson from Minnesota 2 years ago) will get the start in his place. I don't think you'll find an expert who will tell you to start Johnson, but look at the upside. If there's little pressure put on him, he's got a fantastic array of receivers to throw to. He's got Barber in the backfield to keep the defense honest along with talented receivers for both long and short gains. This will be an interesting game.
As for the Packers/Colts game this afternoon, the Colts downgraded Joseph Addai yesterday from doubtful to out. That's good news for Packer fans, however Rhodes is still a talented back and should get some yardage today.
Shaun Alexander makes his return to the NFL today with the Washington Redskins. Temper your expectations. I haven't seen any of the waiver wire pickups list him as a viable option. If you're looking for this week's waiver wire pickups, head over to the FF Librarian for this week's edition. If Alexander surprises everyone, expect waiver battles come Tuesday morning.
Seneca Wallace will be starting for the Seahawks at Tampa Bay tonight. This brings the value of the Seattle receivers down a bit. Hope for Hasselbeck to get healthy.
Drew Brees has been a fantasy monster this year and could throw for more than 5,000 yards this year. I'm fortunate enough to have Brees on my team in the Stinky Tee Experts League. Colston and Shockey are expected to take the field today against the Panther's 2nd ranked defense. If the Panthers can't stop Brees, who can?
Reggie Bush had many owners concerned this week, however Sean Payton said that Bush will be ready and healthy for today's game. Start him as normal.
Thomas Jones has a great matchup this week against an Oakland defense that has given up 8 rushing TD's in 5 games. Jones should be refreshed after the bye week and has the potential to rack up fantasy points today. Favre also has a great matchup. Doesn't it give you the impression of a school bully beating up on the weaker kid? If you've got Favre, Jones, Cotchery, or Coles, you'll be rooting for the bully.
I'm looking forward to Monday Night Football, as many of you will be as well. There are so many top players in that game that many contests this week will be decided Monday night. If Matt Cassel can't find his groove against the Broncos, the game's up folks. Here's my advice to him: Take a deep breath and throw short passes to Moss or Welker. Get them the ball. They have the ability to turn short plays into significant yardage. You have got to get them involved. When I watch Patriots games (post-Brady), I am reminded of last year's injury to Jake Delhomme. His injury dropped Steve Smith's value like today's stock market. Those who don't pay attention to history are doomed to repeat it. Cassel - open your eyes.
Here's a quick rapid-fire report rounding out this week:
- Boldin and Chambers are out this week
- Updating earlier reports, T.J. Houshmandzadeh (ankle) practiced fully Friday and is expected to play Sunday against the Steelers, the Cincinnati Enquirer reports.
- Julius Jones could lose carries this week to Maurice Morris, and coach Mike Holmgren said he would like to see the touches between Jones and Morris "even out," the Tacoma News Tribune reports.
- Kellen Winslow is Questionable this week. Keep an eye on the Injury Report for updates.
- Bo Scaife could see a major boost to his fantasy value as both starting receivers Justin Gage (knee) and Justin McCareins (hamstring) may be out against Kansas City.
- Jet's fans should be happy that Coles participated a bit during Friday's practice and is expected to play today.
- Eddie Royal will play Monday night
- Calvin Johnson will play today. I haven't found anyone who wants to talk about his value. Williams is now in Dallas so expect double coverage on the guy all day long. Kitna's out so the passing game is still in question. This is not the year to be in Detroit.
- Jon Gruden said that Joey Galloway will be a game-time decision today. Nothing like last minute nail-biting for Galloway owners.
- Clinton Portis may not be 100%, but he'll be starting today anyway.
My final word for today...Go Pack Go!
Good luck this week to everyone!
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October 16, 2008 0 Total Comments
Well I was wrong. Last week, I wrote "I'm benching Ryan Grant this week in favor of Le-Ron McClain. Even though he had 83 yards on the ground last week, Grant still hasn't found the end zone and I'm tired of the false hope." McClain had 2 attempts for -2 yards, a fumble, and 1 reception for 2 yards. He was in fact the lowest scoring RB among ALL backs last week. I could have started someone on bye week and scored more points. The Nerd had McClain ranked #15 last week with Grant at #17. I guess none of the experts saw that one coming.
Looking ahead to Week 7, I like Marion Barber at #1 and Clinton Portis at #2. LT follows at #3. Portis has been a machine this year and should dominate again this week (assuming he plays - check the Injury Report). He's a load to take down and defenses have to scheme to try and contain him.
This is the first week you won't see Tony Romo in the Top 10 and what a week not to have him! With both T.O. and Roy Williams spreading out the field (not to mention Jason Witten, the league's #1 TE), this would be the week where conventional wisdom says that Romo should have an easier time making big plays downfield.
What happened to Peyton Manning? We're starting to see his return and that may continue this weekend at Lambeau Field.
Trent Edwards fully practiced and is expected to start this week at San Diego. The Chargers give up a lot through the air and Buffalo's been scoring this year, so keep an eye on him.
WR's look pretty much the same as they have for the past few weeks. Brandon Marshall leads the rankings with Greg Jennings, Reggie Wayne, Andre Johnson, Steve Smith, Plaxico Burress, Lee Evans, Braylon Edwards, Jerricho Cotchery, and Terrell Owens rounding out the Top 10 this week.
I thought it was interesting to see Edwards listed in the Top 10 which hasn't happened since Week 1. Even though he had a monster game against the Giants on Monday Night, I'm not sure that I share the same optimism as the experts this week. Look at the weekly rankings for Braylon Edwards since Week 1.
Week 1: #5
Week 2: #15
Week 3: #24
Week 4: #28
Week 6: #39
Week 7: #8
I'd like to see at least another good week of Anderson-Edwards hook-ups before placing him in the Top 10, but hey, they're the experts. I'm also not sold on T.O. being in the Top 10 this week without Romo. We'll see this week.
I'm also having a hard time with some of the TE rankings. Kellen Winslow at #1? Are all the experts expecting to see the Derek Anderson of 2007 after 1 good game? Not only that, but Winslow's illness had him hospitalized. Should we expect a monster game from him this week? What's the reasoning behind that ranking? I also see Todd Heap at #6 this week. The only way Heap can achieve that is by getting active in the passing game. To date, he's been utilized almost exclusively as a blocker. Do the experts know something we don't??? Finally, I'm trying to choke down the #3 ranking for Jeremy Shockey. Don't get me wrong, I think Shockey is a great player, but I think it's premature to hoist him in the Top 5. Top 10 or 15 for sure, but #3?
Believe it or not, I don't have too many issues with the Defensive rankings this week. Pittsburgh arguably deserves to be on the top this week against a Cincinnati offense where nobody's driving the car. Tennessee and Tampa Bay are playing great defense this year and face Kansas City and Seattle respectively. Rounding out the Top 5 are the New Yorkers - the Giants and the Jets. If you've got the Giants (of which I'm in the same boat as you), let's pray that they don't repeat their Monday Night performance.
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October 14, 2008 0 Total Comments
I'm sure you're all aware Roy Williams will be leaving Detroit and heading down south to Dallas and that Shaun Alexander has finally found a home (temporarily) in Washington.
The Nerd's profiles for these two players have been updated, however not all of the sources have updated their projections and player profiles yet. Prior to the last scan, Williams was ranked #31 among WR's with a Nerd-projected 7.2 pts. Alexander obviously was absent. Please be patient as we wait for the individual sites to update these new changes.
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October 12, 2008 0 Total Comments
Arizona - Anquan Boldin is out, so Steve Breaston should see more looks during what is expected to be a shoot-out.
Atlanta - Roddy White is listed as questionable for Week 6, which doesn't help the Falcons. If he can't go, Michael Jenkins becomes a bit more popular.
Baltimore - Willis McGahee's knee injury didn't prevent him from fully participating in Friday's practice which is good news for owners. He gets to face a Colts defense that should expect 20+ carries.
Carolina - While you probably weren't planning on starting him anyway, WR D.J. Hackett is listed as doubtful this week. The offensive line could be missing several key players which makes this an interesting scenario to watch.
Chicago - It doesn't look like WR Brandon Lloyd will be taking the field today, but Tillman and Harris will be full participants on the Defense as the Bears try and contain Turner and company.
Cincinnati - What a bad situation for the Bengals. Carson Palmer missed practice on Friday and will not be the starter again. This doesn't bode well for Houshmandzadeh and Johnson owners. Shayne Graham didn't practice on Thursday or Friday and is listed as questionable for Sunday's game at the New York Jets. The Bengals signed Dave Rayner on Saturday.
Cleveland - It's a tough matchup against the Giants, but it becomes even tougher without TE Kellen Winslow who is still in the hospital for an undisclosed illness. Donte' Stallworth will finally suit up, but if Edwards can't make it as a viable fantasy option, why would Stallworth?
Dallas - Jason Witten fully practiced and will be a "GO" today. Terence Newman and Roy Williams will not be on the field, which is good news for Kurt Warner and Larry Fitzgerald owners.
Denver - Watch the Injury Report for game-time decisions regarding Bronco players. Eddie Royal was limited in Friday's practice but could still make the start. Brandon Stokley's value goes up if Royal can't play. Tony Scheffler is out along with Selvin Young. There's still plenty of yards and points to go around with Cutler as the field general, so Denver is still a great play.
Detroit - Kitna is out, which means Dan Orlovsky is in. There hasn't been much good news out of Detroit lately and that trend will continue this week. Williams and Johnson are listed as questionable, but both will likely start.
Green Bay - Even without Al Harris or Atari Bigby, the Packers D should be close to 100% against a strong Seattle running offense. Aaron Rodgers hasn't had a full day of practice all week, but is expected to start. He was hurt last week and look what he produced!
Houston - Chris Taylor is out. Slaton and Green will be the ball carriers this week.
Indianapolis - Anthony Gonzalez was a full participant in Friday's practice, but he remains an iffy option for fantasy owners.
Jacksonville - Matt Jones should get more looks this week as WR Mike Walker is definitely out.
Miami - The warm weather in Miami must mean healthy players. Nothing to analyze here!
Minnesota - Sidney Rice and Bernard Berrian are both listed as questionable and had limited practice on Friday. Keep an eye on them with particular attention on Berrian. If he's cleared to play, he's got a fantastic matchup this week.
New England - LaMont Jordan is listed as doubtful and Maroney is questionable. Regardless of whether either takes the field, they probably shouldn't be in your lineup.
New Orleans - If you've been holding onto Marques Colston, this is the week where he can finally make a contribution. Jeremy Shockey is not expected to suit up this week, but is looking better and better to be back next week.
New York Giants - It looks like all the relevant offensive starters will be on the field, including Burress who is fresh off his 2 game suspension. The D is at close to 100% and should produce fine in all leagues.
New York Jets - Laveranues Coles may be listed as questionable, but feel confident starting him.
Oakland - I'm not sure if McFadden will suit up. If he doesn't, that will boost Justin Fargas's value a bit.
Philadelphia - The biggest news is that Brian Westbrook is definitely out. Correll Buckhalter will start in his place. Reggie Brown is out as well, so Hank Baskett should see more targets from McNabb. Kevin Curtis might see the field this week, however your expectations should be limited this week.
St. Louis - Wide receivers Drew Bennett and Dane Looker are not expected to start today.
San Diego - Chris Chambers is not expected to start, so Vincent Jackson's value should go up this week if Rivers continues slinging the ball. Tomlinson will be pounding the ball today.
San Francisco - All offensive starters will be on the field.
Seattle - Matt Hasselbeck is not expected to play. Seneca Wallace, his backup, is also not expected to play which puts Charlie Frye (yes - that Charlie Frye of the Browns) behind center. Deion Branch saw a little action last week but will not be playing today. Maurice Morris should be back which means that Julius Jones owners should expect to see fewer carries.
Tampa Bay - Brian Griese missed Friday's practice, so Jeff Garcia will most likely get the nod today. While Joey Galloway continues to recover from his foot injury, Antonio Bryant will continue to get the targets.
Washington - All around, this is a pretty healthy team. Jason Taylor and Shawn Springs are both expected to start. No notable offensive injuries to report.
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October 12, 2008 0 Total Comments
Last week wasn't very good for me. I didn't use the Nerd to make a sit/start decision that I should have. I have both Larry Johnson and Brian Westbrook in one league and opted to start Johnson, even though the Nerd had Westbrook edging him out in the rankings. I just felt that Johnson was the safer play coming off a monster week and Westbrook nursing his injury. That was a disappointment and cost me the win. Larry Johnson's pathetic 7 carries for 2 yards produced a whopping 0.2 points which just doesn't cut it. 2 YARDS?!?!?! I'd be happy to suit up and carry the ball 7 times for a fraction of his salary. Give me a bonus if I get 3 or more yards.
In the three leagues I participate in, I'm 4-1, 3-2, and 3-2. I had to laugh as I set my lineup in one particular league where my bench consists of Brian Westbrook and 5 guys all on bye week. That was the easiest lineup I've ever set. If they're playing, they're starting.
I'm benching Ryan Grant this week in favor of Le-Ron McClain. Even though he had 83 yards on the ground last week, Grant still hasn't found the end zone and I'm tired of the false hope. With my luck, Grant will rip off a monster game this afternoon. Doesn't it seem that way sometimes? The guys with unfavorable matchups tend to defy the odds.
Vernon Davis has been a bust all year, so he's riding the pines as well which is a shame for such a talented guy.
I have Plaxico and had to sit him last week. Eli - if you're reading this - I'd appreciate a couple of long bombs his way. His speed and height make him an attractive target this week against a much shorter secondary.
Matt Cassel - if there was ever a week to look Brady-esque, it's against the 32nd ranked Chargers pass defense. They're giving up an average of 265 passing yards a game. Moss and Welker are incredible tools at your disposal. Get them the ball.
Brandon Marshall - Last week's 3 receptions for 25 yards hurt. After hauling in 166, 155, and 77 yards along with a TD in each of the previous three games, I think we're all expecting a bit more this week.
Derek Anderson - I'm assuming you have a twin brother and he was the one who suited up last year. Would you mind letting him take your place?
Lance Moore - Don't let Colston intimidate you. Brees will continue to throw a lot, so make the most of every pass.
On any given Sunday...
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October 5, 2008 0 Total Comments
Game time is almost upon us so here's a quick look around the NFL based on the Nerd projections.
Bears @ Lions
I can't believe I'm opening this post by saying "Kyle Orton should be considered in most leagues." Yes, Orton has improved and I'll disagree a bit with the Nerd's #22 ranking. He's got a great matchup and the Lions have got to be worried about Matt Forte (and they have every reason to worry!). Speaking of Forte - he's sitting pretty ranked at #1 this week.
I don't like any of the Lion RB's against Chicago's D, but Kitna, Johnson, and Williams should do well. Johnson is obviously the go-to guy in Motor City with a Nerd rank of 5. Williams is quite a bit down the list at #39.
Chiefs @ Panthers
Where to start? Both teams now have solid fantasy plays here. LJ (#15) probably won't produce last week's numbers, but should still produce for owners. Bowe and Gonzalez are good options here. Bowe has been very consistent over the first 4 weeks and I think he'll continue that streak. The experts disagree with me and have him ranked #38.
If you've been waiting for that investment in Steve Smith to pay off, you should enjoy today's game. Smith (#8) and Delhomme (#6) are projected to connect pretty well today. What does this mean for Muhsin Muhammad (#22) owners? Temper your expectations as it will be difficult for him to repeat last week's performance, but ranking in at #22 is still respectable. Stewart could do well at the goal-line this week and is ranked #19 among RB's this week.
Falcons @ Packers
Aaron Rodgers (#9 among QB's) will be a game-time decision today. If he can't go, the value of the GB receiving corp definitely takes a hit. There seems to be quite a bit of consensus that Rodger's value is solid at the #9 rank should he decide to go. The experts project Grant (solid #16) to have a good game today. I sure hope so. Otherwise I'll be following the crowds as we either dump Grant or relegate him to the pines.
I am hard-pressed to disagree with the experts today on the projections for Michael Turner (#7), but could be convinced to move him up a bit in the rankings. The Packers are missing some key players in their Defense and they'll give up plenty of yards on the ground today. I agree with the Nerd that Matt Ryan belongs at #26 this week with White at #10 this week. The Packers secondary is either hot or cold and if they're cold, expect a big day out of White.
Chargers @ Dolphins
Tomlinson is a must anyway, so let's look at the passing game. Rivers should be considered a must-start with his #4 ranking and he's got a great matchup with his choice of targets: Gates, Chambers, and Jackson in that order.
If Pennington hasn't already acclimated himself to the warmer climate of MIA, he should this week by heating things up against the San Diego D which gives up a ton of passing yards. I like Fasano this week with a #4 ranking, however I think he'll surprise all and be this week's #1 TE. Expectations for Ronnie Brown should be tempered and I think the Nerd's #13 ranking for him this week is optimistic.
Seahawks @ Giants
Both Deion Branch and Bobby Engram are expected to make their returns against the Giants this week, which could mean big things for owners with them (and Matt Hasselbeck owners!). Their JV team should be replaced with the dynamic duo, but be cautious about using them. It's always tempting to just plug star receivers back in the lineup upon their return, however there's no guarantee that they'll produce. The Nerd sees them as #42 and #47 among WR's this week. I don't like either one against the Giant's D, and Holmgren has made comments leading me to believe that they'll be eased into the game and won't be pushed. Having picked up Branch in one of my leagues, I hope I'm wrong. Jones isn't expected to do much either against a pretty-solid D.
Plaxico's out, but Manning's gotta throw to someone. Toomer and Boss are good plays here. Jacobs is ranked #9 this week and that could be tough against a Seattle D that poses a tough matchup. That doesn't bode well for Bradshaw and Ward who will continue to rotate in the offense.
Redskins @ Eagles
I don't expect the Eagles to give up yards on the ground like they did against Dallas, so Portis's value is probably valid at #17 (Ryan Grant edges him by almost a full point). Campbell (#7), Moss (#7), and Cooley (#3) look like great options this week.
Westbrook should be back this week, but the extent of his ankle injury puts him up in the air. He wasn't seen at practice this week performing any cuts, instead opting for straight rushing. His quick cuts are a nightmare for opposing defenses, so that leaves open the readiness question. Reggie Brown should be a good play at #27 and I have difficulty buying into the #16 ranking for DeSean Jackson (hate mail to follow). I can't help but compare Jackson to Sarah Palin - both have great potential but still lack the maturity needed to succeed (even more hate mail to follow). Jackson is an explosive player who can make big plays but I can't get his moronic TD play out of my head. I have to say that I may be in the minority here.
Titans @ Ravens
I'm not excited about any of the plays here, except for the defenses. Chris Johnson could produce like he did last week, but I'm not starting any of my Titans or Ravens this week (again except for the D's). Derrick Mason (#40) could make me eat my words if Joe Flacco doesn't flacco out. McGahee (#26) is questionable but will most likely start. McClain seems to get more of the goal-line chances and edges out McGahee with a ranking of 18.
Colts @ Texans
Finally, Joseph Addai may produce. His #6 ranking among RB's comes against a Houston defense that allows roughly 160 yards/game to opposing running backs. Peyton is a must-start of course even with the year he's having and sits nicely ranked at #2. Wayne is also a must-start, but be careful with your expectations for Harrison and Gonzalez. Those two are difficult to predict. Start Clark with confidence this week. He's ranked #8, but I wildly disagree with the experts. Bo Scaife is ranked higher than Clark and I think that's optimistic.
At some point, Andre Johnson has to have a monster game. It could very well happen this week (as if you even considered benching him). Schaub and Owen Daniels are solid plays this week. Steve Slaton cracks the Top 5 this week so many owners are expecting big things from him today.
Buccaneers @ Broncos
Earnest Graham should have a productive day today, and I think Brian Griese deserves his first Top 10 Nerd ranking this week against a Bronco's D that ranks 2nd in the league for passing yards allowed. That makes Bryant (#12) and Hilliard (#28) beneficiaries down field. Galloway will most likely not play, which makes me like Griese's receivers that much more.
Many predicted 2008 as Jay Cutler's breakout year and he hasn't disappointed any of us. The Cutler-Marshall combo looks like the Brady-Moss combo of last year. They can hook up at will and certainly will against Tampa Bay. Cutler is a Top 5 starter and Marshall claims ownership of #1 this week among WR's.
I'm frustrated by the backfield in Denver. Selvin Young (#38) and Michael Pittman (#37) hurt each other's fantasy values. Young gets the bulk of the carries, but Pittman is the go-to guy on the line.
Bills @ Arizona
What did they put in the water in Buffalo? The Bills are tops this year and this will most likely be a high-scoring game. Lee Evans, who was so inconsistent last year, comes in ranked at #13. Lynch should have a solid game and I don't expect much of anything out of Fred Jackson.
With the right tools at his disposal, Kurt Warner can put up some serious fantasy numbers. Even with Fitz (ranked #2), Warner falls to #12 among QB's with the loss of Boldin. Fitzgerald may find it difficult to achieve his projected numbers if the defense doubles up on him all day, which is what they should be doing. James vs Hightower? It's just like the Young-Pittman situation in Denver. James (#28) will get the bulk of the carries, however Hightower (#40) is the go-to guy on the line.
Patriots @ 49ers
Greg Jennings can still be a star without Brett Favre, but Moss and Welker haven't even left our orbit with Matt Cassel. The loss of Tom Brady has meant a loss for the Pat's receivers. Plenty of coverage has been given to the time that Cassel and Moss spent over the bye week trying to get on the same page. Cassel's ranked #19 this week. Moss is #9. Welker is #26. New Englands O-Line needs to give Cassel enough time in the pocket to bring Moss into the game. Maroney comes in ranked at #34, mostly due to the fact that he has to share time with Jordan and Morris. If there's going to be a good week for Pats, it should come at the expense of the 49'ers. I'm not convinced.
Frank Gore comes in ranked #4 and there seems to be a pretty solid consensus that he belongs there. He's got a great matchup this week. As for J.T. O'Sullivan (#23), I've read many reports that call for fantasy owners to bench him. I have a hard time arguing that. The same can be said of Vernon Davis. I have Davis in one of my leagues and dread the week that I have to start him due to bye-week coverage. He's just not involved in the offense.
Bengals @ Cowboys
Carson Palmer (#20 among QB's this morning) seems insistent that he'll play today. "I've already made up my mind I'm playing," said Palmer. "I'm going to do what I can in practice and do what they let me do, but I'm 100 percent expecting to play going into this game, and planning on playing. I'll probably be limited in practice, but I'll do what I can."
Receiver Chris Henry (#62 among WR's) was activated yesterday by the Bengals, however I think it's a stretch that he should be included in your lineup unless you're in a very, very, very deep league. There are simply better WR's out there.
Housh has some value here, but Ocho Cinco is way up in the air. Maybe having T.O. in the same stadium will be enough for Ocho Cinco to bring his A-game, but I doubt it. Everything revolves around the status of Palmer and how healthy his play is today.
Dallas is...well...Dallas. When Tony Romo (#3) isn't burning you through the air, Marion Barber (#3) will be scorching you on the ground. The Bengals are pretty good against the pass, but this is Tony Romo and a supporting cast that is talented enough to put up some big numbers. The Bengals give up a fantasy-loving 160+ yards on the ground per game. If there were policemen on the field, Barber will be getting tickets for hit & run and speeding this week.
Ravens @ Steelers
The running game in Pittsburgh is in shambles, so leave it up to Big Ben (#11), Santonio Holmes (#11), and Hines Ward (#30) to take it to the air. I think Moore (#20) should only be started if you're out of options and in a PPR league.
Who would I start on the Ravens? Unfortunately, nobody. The Steelers have such a dominant run defense that MJD and Fred Taylor will have a tough time surpassing the 74 yards that other teams get each week. 74 yards isn't impressive and it's worse when you're sharing carries. How about in the air? Sorry, guys, it's just not attractive here either. Jones and Wiliams have potential, but the Steelers only allow an average of 162 passing yards.
Vikings @ Saints
What happened to the much-respected Vikings Defense that everyone touted during the drafts? I'm pretty sure that they won't show up today either. Drew Brees lays claim to the #1 ranking this week among QB's and that makes Lance Moore, Devery Henderson, and Robert Meachem valuable receivers. It goes without saying that Reggie Bush is a must-start, especially in PPR leagues where Brees is sure to reward those fantasy owners with lots of dump-offs to Bush in the backfield.
Adrian Peterson has a fantastic matchup this week, unless Frerotte is forced to throw a lot to keep the Vikes in the game.
That's it for this morning. Good luck to all!
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October 1, 2008 0 Total Comments
When I created the Nerd, it was my intention to use it myself. I do...every week, however I balance the predictions with my own research and ultimately, my gut. I'm in three leagues and I used the Nerd's Draft Buddy tool for all three. I thought it would be interesting to post how I'm doing after 4 weeks.
I am 3-1 in all of the leagues including the Stinky Tee Experts League. This puts me in 3rd place in two leagues and 2nd in the other one. Two of my losses came by 4.5 points and 3 points - both last minute heartbreakers. I got killed in the Experts League last week playing against the Bruno Boys, but then again, so has everyone else. There have been some misses on the predictions which help me decide my starting lineup and there have been some homeruns. I've found it beneficial in helping me with waiver-wire decisions as well.
There are certainly some busts, but we're all facing those. Ryan Grant?? Horrible. Pathetic. Disappointing. Pick your adjective...they're all true. The Nerd sees him as #16 among RB's this week, most likely due to an Atlanta Defense that's ranked 23rd against the run allowing an average of 136 yards/game on the ground. His hammy should be better, so I'm not ready to bench him just yet. As a virtual coach, I'm giving him another chance to earn his starting spot.
Derek Anderson is in the same boat. Rest up and get your game on.
Plaxico - It would have been nice to have you in the lineup this week against a Seattle Defense that ranks 24th in the league against the pass giving up an average of 226 yards/game to receivers. Seriously - I'd like to fine you as well, but instead I'll have to watch guys like Toomer and Boss take the yardage (neither of which are on any of my teams).
Not all have been disappointments however. Some pickups like Lance Moore and Muhsin Muhammad performed well for me lately. I have high hopes for Jonathan Stewart as well, though he's not likely to be mentioned in the same breath as Gore, Westbrook, or Jackson anytime soon. Michael Turner is starting to come back down to Earth after an explosive start to the year, and he looks like he'll be a solid fantasy option for years to come.
In the interest of full disclosure, I don't base all of my decisions on the Nerd's rankings. I still do my research. I use the Nerd's PlayerWatch feature to keep tabs on recent news regarding my teams as well as all of the other tools like Injuries and Today in the NFL. I also use many of the same tools that you do.
What's in my bookmarks? Here are some of my faves.
FFLibrarian.com: The Librarian has the fantasy football world catalogued and she knows about every nook and cranny. Seriously - she finds hidden gems EVERY week.
NFL.com: It's the official source. I get a little steamed that the official source isn't always 100% accurate with their data (Yeah - you've finally realized that Jake Delhomme isn't a RB!!), but I find value in some of their insight.
ESPN.com: I have a love/hate relationship with ESPN. They have good relationships with the NFL players and their agents which seems to give ESPN an edge on breaking news. I love this site, but seriously hate their "insider" feature. I'm not opposed to paying for special features, but those features better be worth it and exclusive when there are thousands of other sites a click away.
The Hazean: Great insight every day in the Daily Haze. These guys are fantatics and a great read. Michael at The Hazean has given me feedback on the Nerd and I appreciate and value his suggestions and opinions. I enjoy reading the Daily Haze and I know you will too.
Honorable Mentions: Yahoo!, FFGoat, ProFootballWeekly.com, RotoWorld.com.
There are many more, but these have been my core outside resources for independent research. I use other sites as well and I will post more of them here as soon as I can break my habit and make better use of the others.
I'll wrap up this post with what has become one of my favorite quotes from one of the guys in my leagues. "You gotta have a guy like Brady on the bench to keep up everyone else's spirits." While Brady won't be making any contributions to the starting lineup, it's nice to see him comforting everyone else on the bench. (And...No...I don't take advice from him.)
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