November 2008 Blog Postings
November 27, 2008 0 Total Comments
Happy Thanksgiving to all my Nerds. What's better than turkey and a football game? How about turkey and 3 football games? This is the first year that I get to try deep-fried turkey. I've always heard good things, but have never had an opportunity to try it myself. Hopefully my fantasy day is as tasteful as the meal I expect to have. This is a do-or-die week for me. I'm in 7th place in a 10-team league where I will be officially eliminated with a loss this week. On a purely matchup perspective, my opponent has the easier matchups with guys like Rivers vs ATL, T. Jones vs DEN, and T.O. vs SEA. I do have Adrian Peterson against Chicago and a broken up Jason Witten to lean on (extra dose of sarcasm needed here). Wish me luck! I'm clinging to 3rd in an 8-team league and I'm in 3rd in the Stinky Tee Experts League which is a 12-team league of fantasy site owners and all die-hards.
Here's what the experts are looking at this week.
Week 13 Quarterbacks
Welcome back to #1 Tony Romo. The Niners couldn't stop him last week and the Seahawks shouldn't pose too much of a problem for him this week. I think Drew Brees and Romo could easily switch places in the rankings as Brees made stuffing out of my beloved Green Bay Packer secondary on Monday and I can't imagine the Bucs doing any better.
Peyton Manning comes in 3rd against a soft Browns defense. Jay Cutler faces a Jets defense that holds up against the run but gives up mucho yards through the air (Matt Cassel and Kerry Collins got 643 yards and 4 TD's). Warner comes in at #5 against a Philly defense that Boldin and Fitz can pick apart. Rivers, McNabb, Favre, Garrard, and Matt Ryan round out the Top 10. I think we'll see a different McNabb this week. He shouldn't have been benched last week at halftime and I think he'll light it up against a Cards defense that loves to give up TD's to opposing QB's. I'll be surprised if he doesn't get 2 TD's this week.
It's Chad Pennington's (#11) turn to beat up the St Louis secondary and he should still do well even without Greg Camarillo. It looks like the experts expect Trent Edwards (#12) to repeat last week's performance, but I'm disagreeing with them here. He'll do OK, but I don't think he'll repeat, even if it is San Fran that he's playing.
Remember earlier this season when Jeff Garcia threw and threw and threw? Well, those were happy days. Don't expect that this week.
Matt Cassel - WOW. 2 400-yard games in a row!! Here's when I need those points the most, but I just don't believe you'll be able to reach the 200 or 300 yard mark against the #1 pass defense in the league.
Cassel barely edges out Aaron Rodgers (#16) who faces a Carolina defense that should be better than the N.O. D from Monday. Sage Rosenfels follows at #17 and his production is so hard to predict. Flip a coin.
Kerry Collins comes in at #18 against the hapless Lions. Detroit can't stop anything so he gets my sleeper alert this week. I'm starting him in front of Matt Cassel in my do-or-die league and my fingers will be crossed.
Eli comes in at #19 this week against the Redskins. Washington kept him in check in Week 1 and they've only gotten better. I would expect more running in this game.
Joe Flacco hits the #20 mark this week and I would anticipate Baltimore running, running, running.
Thigpen falls to #21, probably based upon the fact that he scored poorly the last time he faced Oakland. Dwayne Bowe gets Nnamdi again and that hurts Thigpen's value.
My last comment on QB's this week deals with Shaun Hill and Kyle Orton, ranked 22 and 23. If you're relying on either of them this week, I'm sorry.
Week 13 Running Backs
Adrian Peterson at #1? I'm not sold on that. He rushed for 121 yards the last time he met the Chicago defense, but talk this week has been on getting Chester Taylor involved more. I think AP is a Top 10 candidate and obviously a must-start, but I disagree with the top ranking spot. In fact, I like Ronnie Brown (#3) against the pathetic Rams defense, DeAngelo Williams (#4) likely to see a fifth straight 100+ yard performance, Thomas Jones (#6) running through Denver's front, and Marion Barber (#2) both running and catching yards against Seattle. Even Jamal Lewis (#14) has a better matchup.
Frank Gore (#11) was a major disappointment last week. Maybe it was because Dallas really came to play. Maybe it was because Hill couldn't stay vertical enough to hand off the ball. Whatever the reason, Gore should be able to bounce back this week against Buffalo and their poor rush defense.
Michael Turner won't score 4 TD's this week, but he'll still get at least 1. With one eye on Matt Ryan and the other eye on Roddy White, Turner's run game should be set up nicely.
Larry Johnson and Darren McFadden show up in the Top 20 this week. Turf toe didn't seem to slow down McFadden last week and he's got a great matchup against KC. LJ could see the century mark this week.
How's this for an upside down year? Clinton Portis drops to #20 and Brian Westbrook sees #21. Ouch. Not just for these two but for all fantasy owners. Both are still hurt. Portis sees the Giants D this week and Westbrook is coming off a short week (although Buckhalter's absence should mean a bigger workload).
Brandon Jacobs falls all the way to #22, primarily because he's still a game-time decision. This was easily the most annoying decision I heard from fantasy owners last week. Who knew that he wasn't going to play? Lack of information is what frustrates and angers owners the most. He's a roll the dice type of situation again this week.
I almost fell out of my chair this morning when I saw Steven "I can't drop him but I can't play him either" Jackson actually ranked at #31. He's likely to be a game-time decision and I can't afford to take the chance with him. He's been my bust pick this year.
Reggie Bush has Steven-Jackson-itis. He says he's going to play, but with a Nerd rank of 38, the experts don't think so.
Week 13 Wide Receivers
It's hard to disagree with the T.O. rank of #1. He spanked San Francisco and Seattle's worse against the pass. In fact, the Seahawks have NO ANSWER for a Romo-Owens combo.
Roddy White gets a sweet potato matchup against the league's worst rated pass defense and that means a big day for Roddy.
Fitzgerald is a numbers man. He gets a lot of targets and he can turn those targets into solid numbers.
Reggie Wayne was a disappointment last week, but he should rebound this week in a wonderful matchup that pits him against the lowly Browns.
Brandon Marshall hits #5 this week and Jay Cutler should be able to find him for some points. There's basically no backfield in Denver so Cutler will have to go to the air.
Lee Evans racked up the points last week (much to my dismay) and he and Trent Edwards will do well this week.
Greg Jennings (#8) is easily the favorite target of Aaron Rodgers. On Monday night, I needed to keep Jennings under 21 points to claim victory, but Jennings and my opponent racked up 28 points (it's a PPR league) knocking me out of the playoffs. It won't be easy against Carolina, but Jennings will find a way.
Hines Ward lands in the Top 10 this week and I've seen him ranked as high as #2 on some sites.
Calvin Johnson (#11) is every bit of the machine that we expected him to be this year. If you've been following my posts since the Nerd was launched, you'll recall that I predicted him to out-perform Roy Williams this year and he hasn't disappointed.
Randy Moss won't have 3 TD's this week, but he seems to be connecting with Matt Cassel and hits #13 this week.
Houshmandzadeh comes in at #15 and he remains the go-to-guy in Cincy. There's only so much one superman can do when you have a poor QB throwing at your feet.
Steve Smith had a monster game last week but he could have a tougher time repeating against the Packers, although Lance Moore didn't seem to have a difficult time.
Colston's #17 ranking is unwarranted. Lance Moore is the favorite target in New Orlean's passing game and he's much more capable than his #28 ranking would indicate. I think the rankings could easily be reversed here.
Wes Welker and Santana Moss fall to 26 and 27 respectively. Both have difficult matchups this week and you'll probably see their values go up next week. Use them if you have to but temper your expectations.
Week 13 Tight Ends
Any surprise to see see Antonio Gates at #1? Nope. He's that good. Don't dwell on the past two weeks.
Tony Gonzalez, Kellen Winslow, Bo Scaife, and Dallas Clark round out the Top 5 and each is a good play this week.
Dustin Keller hits #6 this week and he's quickly becoming a favorite target for Mr. Favre.
Jason Witten makes the Top 10, but I'm not holding my breath that he'll earn that spot. I saw that shot he took last week and even I felt the pain. The Seattle D will have to keep an eye on him, but that just opens up other options for Romo.
Jeremy Shockey actually saw some action on Monday night and he did quite well. He should provide a satisfactory performance this week.
Chris Cooley falls to #13 this week with owners praying that he does better than he did the first time he met the Giants this year. Don't expect anything more than average numbers in this game.
Week 13 Defenses
There's pretty solid consensus that the top 2 defenses this week belong to Tennessee and Baltimore. The only differences are in just how much each will score.
The Dolphins (#4) could make for a nice play this week, particularly if Bulger and Jackson don't play.
Green Bay (#5) will lineup against Delhomme and company. This is an angry defense that will up their play to show that the Saint's domination was a fluke.
The Steelers #1 defense actually comes in ranked #6 this week with Matt Cassel on a role.
I completely, whole-heartedly disagree with the Nerd's consensus that places Tampa Bay at #7. Drew Brees isn't the #1 rated passer in the NFL for no reason. If Reggie Bush doesn't suit up, Brees will go to the air and that spells disaster.
Oakland has stunk for much of the year, but they are ranked #15 this week because of Nnamdi Asomugha. He's that good.
Good luck to all and enjoy your turkey and football!!
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November 16, 2008 0 Total Comments
According to the Giants website, John Carney will be inactive today. You won't find this last-minute news on NFL.com, ESPN.com, etc. If you're like me, you're scrambling to find another K to take his place today.
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November 9, 2008 2 Total Comments
I've disabled the login requirement for the Sit/Start section of the Nerd. Now you'll be able to view all the fantasy football projections without having to login first.
I may add it back later, if I can ever get around to highlighting the players you have on your Player Watch Lists. I've been very busy lately and simply haven't gotten to it, but it's a feature that I intend to add eventually. It would certainly help me when I'm comparing guys on the rankings.
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November 8, 2008 0 Total Comments
Thursday night's game was a good one, depending on who you had from the Broncos or the Browns. Brady Quinn looked good and Jay Cutler had a career-high game. Eddie Royal racked up a ton of points. The Broncos backfield was depleted, but when you're that effective through the air, it apparently didn't matter very much. I enjoyed watching the game, but I was playing against Jay Cutler this week, so I had difficulty cheering him on.
Here's what the experts are watching for this weekend.
Running Backs
Steven Jackson is officially OUT. Darby will get the start.
LaDainian Tomlinson is ranked #1 this week as he faces a Chiefs defense that allowed him to score and run over 100 yards in the last 3 contests. The Chiefs this year are worse than the Chiefs that let him run free before. Expect a big game from LT.
Every ranking after LT has mixed results. Some see Adrian Peterson as a solid #2 while others see Mewelde Moore as the 2nd best RB this week. Overall the Nerd sees Peterson as #2 this week with Moore falling in at #25. I take issue with the #25 ranking with Moore taking on the Colts. My personal opinion is that you'll probably see him finish in the Top 10-15.
Brian Westbrook claims the #3 spot this week. Some experts see him as low as #13 this week, but considering that he's getting healthier and he had 140 total rushing/receiving yards against the Giants last time, he's sure to still put up numbers this week.
Frank Gore comes in at #4 against the Cards this week. If the 49'ers expect to win this game, they need to get Gore involved in both the rushing and the short passing game. He had a big game against them last time and the experts expect more of the same.
Tim Hightower comes in at #6 this week as he's taken over the primary-back duties in Arizona. San Francisco will have a tough time stopping him.
The Nerd sees Ronnie Brown at #7 this week and he should have a solid day against Seattle.
Turner the Burner should have no trouble reaching the century mark this week against New Orleans and he claims the #8 spot.
Jamal Lewis didn't meet quite the expectation that the experts thought he would although he still had a very decent day with a TD.
Thomas Jones follows at #10 and he's been on a roll lately. He's got a great matchup against St. Louis which has a very difficult time stopping the run. They rank 29th in the NFL against the run and that means good news for TJ owners.
Matt Forte comes in at #12 and you have to start him, but don't be surprised if he doesn't live up to the ranking the experts predict. The Titans are very good at stopping the run. That defensive line is simply massive and he could very well struggle.
Ray Rice grabbed 176 yards for Baltimore last week, and while he most likely won't repeat that performance this week, he's headed for fantasy points in the absence of Willis McGahee (and the 16th ranking this week).
Ryan Grant lays claim to the #22 spot this week and I'm inclined to disagree with the experts. Too high of a ranking against the 2nd best rush defense in the league. I hope I'm wrong.
Kevin Smith and Kevin Faulk grab the 23rd and 24th spots. Sammy Morris and LaMont Jordan are sidelined so Faulk's value goes up a bit, but not enough to put him in the Top 20.
You may be surprised to see Steve Slaton at #27, but I agree with the experts on this one. Baltimore hasn't allowed a 100-yard game yet and nobody expects Slaton to achieve the century mark either.
Quarterbacks
The Top 5 are interchangeable, but the experts were a bit off on the Cutler projection. Warner, Brees, Pennington, and Rivers should all have great games and 300+ yards should be par for the course.
The bottom half of the Top 10 is hard to disagree with (one exception). Rodgers will play through the shoulder problem and should slice his way through the Vikings secondary. Garrard gets to play Detroit (do I need to say more?). Favre faces the league's 28th-ranked pass defense in the Rams. Seeing Peyton at #9 is difficult to accept. I think he's destined to finish further down the line as he faces one of the best defenses in the league.
Eli Manning falls to number 15 this week with McNabb ahead of him at #12. Does this mean that the experts think that the Eagles will fare better than the Giants? Tough call. I think the Giants D is much better and I wouldn't be surprised to see the final outcome be the reverse of the predictions, but that's just my opinion.
The Nerd rankings for QB's at 16-20 show Joe Flacco, Sage Rosenfels, Brady Quinn, Tyler Thigpen, and Matt Cassel. If they all follow Brady Quinn's Thursday night example, they'll do just fine. Sleeper Alert: I think the experts will be surprised with Tyler Thigpen's performance this weekend. He faces the San Diego secondary which has not been able to prevent opposing offenses from racking up yards through the air. Thigpen also has Dwayne Bowe who has been a consistent target.
Reports seem to indicate that Big Ben Roethlisberger will play this week with his injured right shoulder. The experts don't seem to find him in a healthy position as he lands at #21 this week. Bulger's at #22 without Steven Jackson to keep the defense honest so he'll need to go to the air. The Jets have 29 sacks this year and I guarantee we'll see Bulger on his back at least once.
Wide Receivers
I'm not going to spend much time on the Top 10 WR's this week. They're all solid plays. Larry Fitzgerald, Roddy White, Anquan Boldin, Lee Evans, Brandon Marshall, Steve Smith, Andre Johnson, Greg Jennings, Calvin Johnson, and Laveranues Coles claim the Top 10 rankings. Noticeably absent is Eddie Royal who produced well above his projected #21 position would indicate. The experts are not always right and they were wrong on Royal.
Matt Jones from Jacksonville rises to #11 this week amid his league problems. He's been very consistent and he'll be missed sorely if he faces disciplinary actions. Braylon Edwards missed the mark at #12. Marques Colston is expected to have a decent game and claims the #13 spot. Derrick Mason and Reggie Wayne claim the 14 & 15th spots.
Dwayne Bowe is Mr. Consistent and I think he'll do better than his #16 position and could possibly be a Top 10 this week.
Vincent Jackson hits #17 this week. He's had a TD in each of the last 3 games even with Chris Chambers in the game. He's still a good option.
Bernard Berrian falls in line at #18 against an improved Packer secondary with a tough matchup against veteran Charles Woodson who actually practiced this week.
Greg Camarillo from Miami hits #19 this week and benefits from Chad Pennington's high ranking. I think he'll perform better than his ranking indicates. He had a career-high 11 receptions last week which is great for PPR-leagues and Pennington seems to like him a lot.
Interesting to see Randy Moss fall all the way down to #20. Cassel is a matchup quarterback and he doesn't have a very good matchup this week, so Moss's value drops. Who would have thought prior to the season that Moss would barely make the Top 20?
Isaac Bruce sees his ranking this week at #22. He has the potential to go up, however his YAC needs to improve. It will be interesting to see what effect Shaun Hill has on his value.
Hines Ward is not accustomed to being at #23, but Ben Roethlisberger's poor performance as of late brings Ward's value down. Santonio Holmes presence doesn't help either, but Ward is still Ward and worth playing for big-game potential.
Donnie Avery has emerged as a decent WR2/3. With Steven Jackson out, the experts think the Rams will be forced to throw a lot and Avery should see some of those targets. I'm starting him in one of my leagues, so my fingers will be crossed.
Things get interesting further down the line. Of note are Kevin Curtis at 26, Plaxico Burress at 27, Donald Driver at 28, Muhsin Muhammad at 33, Chris Chambers at 34, Wes Welker at 35, DeSean Jackson at 41, Marvin Harrison at 45, and Amani Toomer at 46. If the experts see McNabb as a solid play, surely Curtis and Jackson should be beneficiaries. Welker falls into the same problem as Moss. Harrison and Toomer have tough matchups. Most interesting is Plaxico Burress and Donald Driver. Plaxico has the talent to be in the Top 10 consistently, but his off-field antics hurt his value considerably. It must have been the new contract. He no longer has anything to play for. Driver is underrated in my opinion. He's a magnet for Rodgers when Jennings faces double coverage and his performance last week against the Titans shows his big-play and consistency abilities.
Tight Ends
There's pretty solid consensus on the Top 5 this week. Kellen Winslow already over-performed this week to the delight of owners who started him. Antonio Gates easily claims the #1 spot across most of the Nerd's sources. Anthony Fasano has been ranked as high as #2 and as low as #9 this week, but the consensus has him at #4 this week.
Tony Scheffler was projected to be the 22nd most productive TE this week and the experts were proved wrong. I watched the game, and even though I'm not a doctor (I don't even play one on TV), it was painfully obvious that he was in pain. He turned in a great performance none the less.
Donald Lee of Green Bay hits lucky 13 this week and should perform at that level. Rodgers gives him consistent looks and the passing game will be on display in Minnesota this weekend.
Opposite of Lee will be Visanthe Shiancoe of the Vikings. If Berrian sees trouble with Woodson or Harris covering him, Shiancoe could benefit from shorter passes, particularly on third downs.
John Carlson shows up at #15 this week and I think that's a little optimistic. Don't get me wrong, he's talented, but he's a lower performing TE. Yes - that's my opinion. I have to start him this week as he's my backup for Jason Witten. I started him last week and we all know how my week went.
Spots 16 and 17 are occupied by Derek Miller of Oakland and the infamous Jeremy Shockey of New Orleans. To see Shockey behind someone like Miller is a disappointment to all those who drafted him high enough to choke a horse. Shockey is probable for this weekend and none of the experts expect anything other than a mediocre performance. Miller faces a completely different problem though. Unlike Shockey catching passes from Drew Brees, it's tough to put up decent numbers when you don't have a decent QB throwing.
Defenses
Everyone seems to agree on Jacksonville's Defense this weekend, so I'll leave that alone. After all, it's Detroit that they'll be facing.
The Jets come in at #6 against a Rams offense without SJAX.
The strong Pittsburgh D falls all the way to #12 this week facing Peyton and company. I have a hard time believing that the Steelers aren't up to the challenge. I'd say differently if the 2008 Colts were like the 2007 Colts, but they're not.
Believe it or not, I don't take too much issue with the experts this week with their Defensive rankings. This season, we've seen much more variance on the accuracy of Defensive rankings than on any other position, but these all look pretty good on paper.
I'll wrap this up with my favorite football saying. Everything looks good on paper, but on any given Sunday...
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November 4, 2008 0 Total Comments
I lost every game this week by a ridiculous amount of points in each game. Yes...EVERY GAME! Here's my opportunity to call out the top 5 busts of the week for me. Thanks guys - you've given me the worst week ever.
1) Steven Jackson: 7 attempts for a whopping 17 yards??? Are you kidding me?? Don't go online and tell everyone you're healthy and starting if it's not true. It puts us all in trouble, because you're capable of pulling out huge games so we can't sit you if you're playing.
2) JaMarcus Russell: You are on my immediate drop list. I went against the Nerd on this one and paid for it. Contrary to the experts, I was sure that you would put up respectable numbers against Atlanta's poor secondary. WOW, was I wrong!! 6 for 19 for a total of 31 yards (let me repeat that: 31 YARDS) with 1 interception and 2 fumbles (1 lost). The Raiders didn't even get a first down until the 3rd quarter. You are neither a leader nor a starting QB. Do you know that you have 8 fumbles on the year with 5 lost? Good riddance.
3) Ben Roethlisberger: As painful as your shoulder may feel right now, it was just as painful to watch your performance. 50 yards??? Ouch.
4) Brandon Marshall: Had it not been for the penalty on the long TD pass, you would have had a good day. 2 receptions for 27 yards just doesn't help. It looked like Week 5 all over again where you only had 3 receptions for 25 yards. Against Miami, we all expected more.
5) Marshawn Lynch: 9 carries for 16 yards. Only saving grace was your 3 receptions.
I was in 2nd place in the Stinky Tee Experts League and lost to the team in LAST PLACE. I was their first win of the season. Pretty sad.
I am so happy to see Week 9 over with. With the elections today and no more political ads after today, things can only get better, right? On that note, make sure you get out and vote. I don't care if you're an Obama or McCain supporter. Just vote.
Good luck to all next week.
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November 1, 2008 0 Total Comments
I've spent some time playing with XUL which, from a Nerd's perspective, is pretty cool (and rhymes with XUL!). I created a Fantasy Football FireFox extension that is EXPERIMENTAL. It's a rough first attempt and I'll try to spend more time in the off-season enhancing it. Right now, it allows me to view the weekly projections and daily NFL news without having to sign in and the window stays on top of my screen. I like that because I can have FleaFlicker or Yahoo leagues open with the rankings window to the side.
If you're interested, try it. Just remember that it is experimental and by no means complete yet. It's the result of some dabbling for my own needs.
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November 1, 2008 0 Total Comments
At the midpoint in the season, it's a good time to take stock of your team. I hope the Nerd has helped in same fashion. It's been an interesting ride so far and I'm looking forward to finishing the season strong.
Tight Ends
Last week Jason Witten was projected to be the #1 TE. Busted ribs put a dent in that projection and I surely missed his usual points. 1 reception for 8 yards just wasn't enough to help me win that game. The only game I lost last week was the league where I have Witten. Week 9 doesn't look so good for the Cowboy's TE either. The Nerd sees him ranked #11. He's having trouble breathing and sleeping this week as he continues to recover. Some estimates show him out of action for 3 or 4 weeks, however Witten wants to play and could be a game-time decision. That's why he's the league leader among TE's, however I'm not sure if he's a safe play against the Giants.
Speaking of TE's, 4 of the top 6 in this week's rankings are not part of the usual suspects. Bo Scaife, Anthony Fasano, John Carlson, and David Martin fall into rankings 3-6. What a difference a few weeks make. These guys have switched places with the likes of Chris Cooley (#9), Kellen Winslow (#10), and Tony Scheffler (#13). Scaife faces a Green Bay defense that gives up points and yards to opposing TE's. Fasano against Denver, Carlson against Philly, and Martin against Miami are decent matchups for these guys.
Quarterbacks
Kurt Warner graces us with his presence at the top of the QB projections chart. On paper he looks like he should have a monster game against a St Louis defense that can be picked apart. Warner averages 272 yards and has thrown 8 touchdowns against his former team in the past five games he's played.
Jay Cutler (#2) should be back in form this week against Miami. The backfield in Denver is a mess so Cutler will probably spend a lot of time in the air. I'd like to see Ryan Torain make a showing here, so keep your eyes open and if you've got a roster spot...grab him.
Chad Pennington makes his debut in the Nerd's Top 5 this week. Yes - it threw me for a loop, however he's playing Denver and their secondary needs a lot of work. If you've got him, this may be the only week where he's a strong play.
It's Chicago's turn to beat up the poor Detroit Lions and that means that Kyle Orton rounds out the Top 5 QB's. I think you'll see Orton in the Top 10 for the rest of the season. He's got some favorable games coming and he's throwing really well right now.
I haven't heard anything about Jessica Simpson finding Brad Johnson a celebrity to double date with, so I'm comfortable with seeing him ranked #19 this week. I think he's at 19 only because of his receivers who have the ability to make plays. On his own merit, Johnson should probably be ranked lower - certainly against the Giants defense.
Matt Hasselbeck is making progress, but Wallace (#25) will make his third straight start this week.
Aaron Rodgers comes off the bye week at #11 against a tough Tennessee Defense. If you're starting him this week, perhaps his $65 million contract extension will spur him to put up big numbers. I can't help but think of both Ryan Grant's and Plaxico Burress's contract extensions. New contracts didn't help either one of them. Maybe Mr. Rodgers neighborhood is different. We'll see.
If I mention Rodgers, I better mention Brett Favre who ranks #14 this week. The Bills at home only allow 170- yards through the air and an average of 15 points. That's not a lot of fantasy points to spread around.
It's nice to see Marc Bulger fall in at #10. With Steven Jackson expected back this week, the run game should set up the passing game which makes Tory Holt (#20) and Donnie Avery (#23) recipients.
Wide Receivers
As long as I'm on receivers, I have to say that there are a couple of surprises here this week. You know Dallas is in a mess when someone like Devin Hester (#24) is ranked ahead of T.O. (#25). Granted, it's only by 0.05 points, but it should never be that close to begin with. Roy Williams falls in way down below at #46. Who knew that 1 little pinky finger could cause so much trouble?
Roddy White falls in at #4 and Lee Evans follows him at #5. These two have been fantastic this year and pretty consistent. For Evans, this certainly is a nice surprise from 2007!
I have to admit that I was a little surprised to see Andre Johnson at #6. He's a receiving machine. I guess the experts think that the Minnesota Defense will be putting pressure on Matt Schaub (#12 among QB's) which could very well happen. If Houston's front line can keep the pressure off, Schaub is a Top 5 QB this week.
Brandon Marshall comes in this week at #2 right behind Larry Fitzgerald who should have a monster game. Marshall should produce nicely this week as Miami gives up the 2nd most fantasy points to wide receivers this year.
Santana Moss is having a great year and he's ranked #12 this week. Believe it or not, I think that's pretty optimistic this week. I'm not sure that he's even going to play, but if he does, perhaps the extra attention of playing on Monday night will help. It's a tough outing though no matter how you slice it. Temper your expectations.
How's this for a surprise? Bernard Berrian rounds out the Nerd's Top 10 WR's this week! The Texans allow a good deal of yards through the air and Gus Frerotte has been decent. Berrian has been pretty solid lately and the experts expect that to continue.
If you're a Housh owner, you've got to be missing the Palmer days. Ryan Fitzpatrick is no Carson Palmer, but he has targeted Houshmandzadeh frequently. The problem is that TJ hasn't been able to capitalize on those receptions. These factors combine to produce a Nerd rank of #22 this week.
Running Backs
Taking a peek at running backs, you'll see Clinton Portis at #14 after being a Top 5 back for the past few weeks. It's a temporary ranking as he faces a very tough Steelers defense.
Larry Johnson, who is being held out by the Chiefs this week, was also suspended one game by the NFL. For what it's worth, I dropped him in the 1 league I had him and I don't intend on picking him back up. Just my opinion.
Ronnie Brown (#6 this week) has a wonderful opportunity to get some solid stats this week against the Broncos. On paper, Brown should definitely see a 100 yd game today. Denver has allowed rushers to see the century mark three of the last four games.
If you follow my ramblings from week to week you know that I was at Lambeau Field to see Ryan Grant's only 100 yd game and only TD this year. I have Grant (#22) in one of my leagues and have been pretty disappointed with him this year. I don't have to travel to Nashville to see him this week, because I don't think he'll put up decent numbers. The Titans allow less than 90 yards on the ground per game at home, so Grant will have another tough day.
Joseph Addai is expected back this week and you'll find him ranked at #23. Maybe this is what the Colts need to bring themselves back to their former selves.
I have always liked Jamal Lewis (#24) and he's one of my starters in the Stinky Tee Experts League, however I expect very little production out of him tomorrow against the Ravens, the League's top run defense.
If you're reading the reports out of Pittsburgh, the Steelers keep saying that Willie Parker (#32) will be back in action this week. I'm not sure I believe that, because they said the same thing last week. The Nerd sees Mewelde Moore at #29, however neither option looks all that attractive on Monday night.
Steve Slaton falls into the #18 position this week, but I disagree with the experts on this one. The Vikes are good at stopping the run, but they've also allowed 7 rushing TD's. Slaton has been on a roll as of late and I think he'll continue that streak. Again - just my opinion.
Maurice Jones-Drew was a disappointment last week, but I expect that to change this week and so do the experts. The Nerd sees him ranked #12 against a weak Cincy Defense that has allowed 11 rushing TD's.
Keep an eye on the Injury Report for Sammy Morris and LaMont Jordan. If either of them play this week, Kevin Faulk's value is decreased. The Nerd sees Faulk at #20 among RB's this week.
That's it for now. Good luck to all this weekend!
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