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September 2009 Blog Postings

September 30, 2009

I've received emails from many of you in the past asking for specific sit/start advice. While I always try to respond to every email, I've been getting a lot lately. To all those that I haven't responded to yet, I apologize for the delay. The truth is that there simply aren't enough hours in the day.

September 28, 2009

If you're one of those who picked up Laurent Robinson, I feel bad for you. Looks like he's going to be out for the rest of the season with a broken leg. You'll be dropping him as quickly as you picked him up.

September 27, 2009

Grab your winter jacket because Hell just froze over. Ok, so maybe it's not that dramatic, but get ready for a new reality. Any preconceived notions that you or I may have regarding sure things in the NFL need to be reviewed.

September 24, 2009

fantasy football rankings
Where to Put 'em is the Fantasy Football Nerd's look at the best and worst matchups for the week. Decisions are based upon the FFN rankings and matchup analysis. Given the known conditions, these matchups are the ones to watch and/or avoid.

Put 'em In The Game: Eli Manning
Plaxico who? Eli didn't need Plax last week against the Cowboys where he threw for 330 yards and 2 TD's. This week he faces the Buccaneers who rank 27th against the pass and 31st in points allowed. His FFN rank is #7 among QB's and he should produce 240-260 yards and 2 TD's against Tampa Bay.
Put 'em In The Game: Ben Roethlisberger
Aaron Rodgers couldn't do it, but Big Ben should put up good numbers against the Bengals. The Steelers have been known for their run game and defense. Passing has not been their strength, but what a difference a year makes. Pittsburgh is the 8th best passing team this year and rank near the end in rushing. Look for Roethlisberger to find Hines Ward and Santonio Holmes and continue his aerial assault.
Put 'em In The Game: Matt Forte
Matt Forte has yet to find the endzone, but that should change this week. Most experts believe he'll post double digit points this week. While his deviation is pretty high, his projections put him in at #5 among RB's. The Seahawks have a good defense this year, but they're 26th against the run. Frank Gore went off against them last week and I'm expecting Forte to go over the century mark as well.
Put 'em In The Game: Felix Jones
Marion Barber has said that he'll play, but his status is questionable. If he can't go, Felix Jones becomes an even better option against Carolina who ranks 28th against the run.
Put 'em In The Game: Steve Smith
Steve Smith (the one from New York) and Mario Manningham claim the #10 and #11 spots this week in the FFN WR Rankings. Tampa Bay is 27th against the pass and 31st in points allowed. You picked up these guys on the waiver wire so here's your chance to use them.
Put 'em In The Game: Greg Jennings
Never before has Greg Jennings been held to 0 receptions until last week. That should not happen against a St Louis defense that ranks 25th against the pass.
Put 'em In The Game: Vincent Jackson
Philip Rivers is running wild and Vincent Jackson is hauling in the yards. Jackson torched a strong Raven's defense for 141 yards and a TD. Miami ranks 23rd against the pass.
Put 'em In The Game: Dustin Keller
Mark Sanchez has looked brilliant in his first two outings and Dustin Keller has been an awesome target. The normally stout Titans defense has dropped to 32nd against the pass. FFN ranks him at #11 among TE's this week and with good reason. Expect somewhere around 7 points this week in non-ppr leagues.
Put 'em In The Game: Chris Cooley
Expect a healthy dose of the Chris Cooley show against the Lions. In the first 2 games of the season, Detroit has allowed 3 TD's to tight ends. Cooley has been the most consistent performer in the Washington offense so expect that to continue this week.
Put 'em In The Game: Neil Rackers
I normally don't care to offer predictions on kickers because they can be inconsistent and low-scoring, but Neil Rackers is a good option this week against the Colts who have given up the 2nd most points to kickers through two games this season. His #2 FFN ranking has a lower standard deviation than most of the other kickers and I like that!
Put 'em On The Bench: Brett Favre
Favre did alright last week with 2 TD's, but his role has been defined more as an elder and clock manager. Nobody will doubt his ability to hand off to AP, but it looks like the Favre from 2 retirements ago is long gone. It's time to retire him to your bench this week.
Put 'em On The Bench: Jay Cutler
I know I might catch some heat for putting Cutler on the bench after his performance last week, but he hasn't inspired any confidence in me after the first 2 weeks. He goes up against a Seattle defense that is 2nd against the pass but hasn't really earned that spot because they've played against the Rams and the 49ers. I could be wrong here and Cutler could turn in a strong performance, but play a safer option if you have it. Let's see what Week 3 brings first.
Put 'em On The Bench: Thomas Jones
Sit Thomas Jones? Seriously? Yes. As good as TJ is, he's got a ridiculously difficult job this weekend. His #30 ranking among RB's this week is due to the Titan's 2nd best rush defense in the NFL. The Titans allow an average of 49.5 yards on the ground and that just doesn't add up to any significant points.
Put 'em On The Bench: Cedric Benson
Cedric Benson was a monster last week against the Packers, but don't expect that same Benson to show up this week. The Steeler's 9th ranked rush defense will have something to say about that.
Put 'em On The Bench: Brandon Marshall
Brandon Marshall was a stud last year, but the loss of Jay Cutler and his poor attitude has turned this fantasy play maker into a dud. Nnamdi Asomugha will be all over him this weekend and Marshall is still sitting in the dog house. Given his #52 ranking this week, there are much better options out there.
Put 'em On The Bench: Bernard Berrian
There were some very high hopes for Bernard Berrian prior to the start of the season. Unfortunately, Favre hasn't been his old gun-slinging self and San Francisco ranks 4th in the league against points scored.
Put 'em On The Bench: Patrick Crayton
After a strong Week 1 performance where he hauled in 4 receptions for 135 yards and a score, Patrick Crayton was held to just 1 reception for 4 yards last week. Carolina is 3rd against the pass and Crayton is just too inconsistent.
Put 'em On The Bench: Greg Olsen
Greg Olsen was supposed to be a major benefactor of the Jay Cutler acquisition, but it just hasn't panned out. Whether it's a lack of targets or his inability to hold onto the ball, Olsen has become one of the worst scoring TE's in the league. Put him on the bench until he proves himself.
Put 'em On The Bench: Zach Miller
When you have one of the worst NFL quarterbacks throwing to you, you know you've got an uphill climb. Denver wasn't known for their defense last year, but believe it or not, they're ranked #10 against the pass in 2009. I hate to say it, but perhaps Miller should get used to the bench.

September 23, 2009

Reba McEntireMove over Reba McEntire. There's a new sheriff in town. There are a ton of survivor type fantasy football games like those found at NFL.com, ESPN.com, and FantasyWorld.com. I participate in several of them because they generally are not too time-consuming and can add a little extra fun, but I gotta tell you that I really enjoy the Best Buy Fantasy game. It is perhaps one of the best ideas that I've seen come to fruition. It certainly doesn't hurt that it's run by one of my favorite retailers either!

September 19, 2009

fantasy football rankings
Where to Put 'em is the Fantasy Football Nerd's look at the best and worst matchups for the week. Decisions are based upon the FFN rankings and matchup analysis. Given the known conditions, these matchups are the ones to watch and/or avoid.

Put 'em In The Game: Brett Favre
If the Lions gave up 358 yards and 6 touchdowns to Drew Brees, surely ol' man Favre can get a few. The Vikings won't be airing it out because their run game will keep them ahead, but if there was ever a week to start him, this is it.
Put 'em In The Game: Trent Edwards
Tony Romo ripped apart the Tampa Bay secondary last week and Trent Edwards has the ability to do so as well. Edwards did pretty well against the NE Defense throwing for 212 yards and 2 TD's (of which none went to T.O.). Owens should spread the D and look for him and Evans to have good games.
Put 'em In The Game: Darren McFadden
I'm not a big fan of Run DMC, but even I have to admit that he'll have a big, big game against the Chiefs who rank 31st against the run. Looking back at last year's matchup, Run DMC had 164 yards and a touchdown. Look for a repeat.
Put 'em In The Game: Clinton Portis
Portis may not have had a stellar outing last week, but look for that to turn around against the Rams who allowed 167 rushing yards and a TD last week against the Seahawks. Portis is arguably better than any Seattle RB.
Put 'em In The Game: Santonio Holmes
Nobody expected last week's performance from Santonio. He was inconsistent last year and only put up solid numbers in the post-season. I'm looking for my spot on the Holmes-bandwagon and recommending his start this week. I like Ward in the red zone, but Holmes for the yardage.
Put 'em In The Game: Chris Cooley
Chris Cooley could be "THE TE" to start this week. He faced a tough Giants D last week and came away with a very respectable 7 reception, 68 yard, 1 TD game. This week he faces the Rams who are fresh off a dismal performance giving up 6 receptions, 95 yards, and 2 TDs to John Carlson from Seattle.
Put 'em On The Bench: Jay Cutler
The Packers took out Matt Forte and Greg Olsen which left Jay Cutler with no weapons. Cutler looked simply awful in the first half and only slightly better in the 2nd. Let Cutler lose the jitters and get in rhythm with his new team before you even think about starting him. Move over Jake Delhomme - Jay's going to the bench with you.
Put 'em On The Bench: Matt Cassel
Word is that Cassel will most likely suit up and start this game, but check the Injury report prior to game time to be safe. There are plenty of questions regarding his readiness and Oakland only allowed 1 TD to Philip Rivers last week. I know you drafted Cassel thinking he would repeat last year's performance, but it's not safe to start him yet. Put 'em on the bench this week. You'll thank me later.
Put 'em On The Bench: LaDainian Tomlinson
Yes - that's right. LT was probably your #1 or #2 pick in the draft, but he's most likely not going to play. Even if he did, you don't want him against that brutal Baltimore defense. Get better soon LT.
Put 'em On The Bench: Steve Slaton
Just like LT, Slaton was most likely one of your first draft picks. Sorry guys but he's not worthy of a starting job this week. He turned in a poor performance last week and he faces the ridiculously tough Titans D this week. I know you're not supposed to sit your studs, but Slaton won't score big for you this week.
Put 'em On The Bench: Kevin Smith
Let's see...Kevin Smith Vs Pat and Kevin Williams. Yuck! Smith could not rush the ball last week and he's going to perform even worse this week against a very, very tough Minnesota run defense.
Put 'em On The Bench: Dwayne Bowe
I nicknamed Dwayne Bowe "Mr. Consistency" last year because he turned in the same performance week after week. As much as I'd like to start him, I'm recommending you sit him ONLY if you have a better option. The QB situation is up in the air and Bowe will have to contend with Nnamdi Asomugha all day which is very tough to do. If you do start him, temper your expectations for this week. I hope I'm wrong on this one.
Put 'em On The Bench: DeSean Jackson
Jackson's value took a hit when McNabb got hurt. With McNabb most likely out and Vick not eligible to play, the QB duties fall to Kevin Kolb with Jeff Garcia as a backup. This isn't a good situation for any Philly wideout.
Put 'em On The Bench: Braylon Edwards
Will Braylon Edwards ever return to fantasy relevancy? I just don't know, but I'm confident that if it does happen, it won't be this week. Champ Bailey will have something to do with that.
Put 'em On The Bench: Benjamin Watson
If you're one of the hundreds of thousands of people who scrambled to pick up Watson from the waiver wires this week, slow down. I find it hard to believe that his 2 TD game will be repeated this week. Not with Welker, Moss, and the other TE Chris Baker in Tom Brady's arsenal. There's nothing in Watson's 2008 season to suggest that he'll repeat last week's performance. Sorry guys.
Put 'em On The Bench: Jeremy Shockey
Like Watson, Shockey is unlikely to repeat last week's performance. I am among those fantasy owners who went and grabbed Shockey off the waiver wires this week, but even I'll be sitting him. He doesn't have a good history against the Philly D. Drew Brees could make me eat my words on this one, but I think there are safer plays this week.

September 18, 2009

The FantasyFootballNerd.com Draft Challenge Leaderboard is now available. Check it out!.

September 17, 2009

There's very little doubt that fantasy football has exploded in popularity over the past few years. An estimated 18 million Americans will participate in it this year. What was once considered an all-male game has evolved to the point where women are becoming more and more common. Yahoo estimates that 14% of their fantasy football players are female. Industry analysts expect that number to grow.

September 13, 2009

When I created FFN, it was my intention to share as much of the data as I could. That's why I also created a free fantasy football API so that other developers could take that data and mash it up into something interesting and useful. I know that there are smarter people out there than me and I'd like to introduce you to 3 great examples of what creativity and open data can produce.

September 12, 2009

fantasy football rankings
Where to Put 'em is the Fantasy Football Nerd's look at the best and worst matchups for the week. Decisions are based upon the FFN rankings and matchup analysis. Given the known conditions, these matchups are the ones to watch and/or avoid.

Put 'em In The Game: Ray Rice
Ray Rice is expected to make the start over Willis McGahee and he'll face the KC Chiefs who ranked 30th against the run last year. Even though McGahee will most likely get the goal-line carriers, expect 100 yards from Rice.
Put 'em In The Game: Reggie Bush
Pierre Thomas has been ruled out for Week 1 so Reggie Bush will get the bulk of the carries. He gets to face the worst run defense in the NFL in the Detroit Lions. Need any more reasons?
Put 'em In The Game: Aaron Rodgers
Aaron Rodgers plays well against the Bears and he'll be looking to start the season off with a bang. The Bears finished 30th last year against the pass and Rodgers is quickly becoming an elite QB.
Put 'em In The Game: Marques Colston
This is the week to start all of your Saints and Colston is no exception. He may have disappointed many last year, but that'll change this week.
Put 'em In The Game: Chad Ochocinco
Carson Palmer is back and Ochocinco has looked great all preseason. He plays the Broncos so expect some type of Ochocinco celebration.
Put 'em In The Game: Dustin Keller
Mark Sanchez looked great during the preseason and Keller was his favorite target. Until Sanchez gets comfortable going deep, Keller will remain his #1 target.
Put 'em On The Bench: Matt Cassel
All indications are that Cassel will play, however this isn't the week to put him in your lineup. Banged up and facing a tough defense? No thanks.
Put 'em On The Bench: Trent Edwards
It doesn't matter if the Bills run the no-huddle all day long, Trent Edwards has a difficult matchup against the Patriots. Even T.O. won't be able to help, especially if he gets winded.
Put 'em On The Bench: Knowshon Moreno
If Moreno was healthy, he'd probably get the bulk of the carries. Unfortunately he's not and that means more sharing with Correll Buckhalter and Peyton Hillis.
Put 'em On The Bench: Clinton Portis
I'm on the fence with this one, but Portis hasn't performed well against the Giants the past two games. If you've got a better option, use it. If not, cross your fingers.
Put 'em On The Bench: Devin Hester
Cutler will be throwing this game but the Packers' secondary will be ready. Cutler has noticeably targeted Hester in the preseason so expect Harris and Woodson to do the same.
Put 'em On The Bench: Braylon Edwards
Brady Quinn has been named the starter but he and Edwards haven't had enough time together to get on the same page. I'd first watch to see if Edwards can hang onto the ball and start him against someone other than Minnesota.
Put 'em On The Bench: Chris Cooley
Chris Cooley has never had good luck against the Giants. In fact, he's averaging just over 3 fantasy points (6 in PPR) against New York. He'll be better in 2009...just not this week.

In looking at my lineups for my various leagues, I can't help but notice that the Saints open up the year against the Lions. That's good news for fantasy owners with Saints players on their rosters, but not if you're a fan from Detroit. I feel bad for Detroit fans. Seriously. Being a Packer fan, I know what last year's losing season felt like, but only a true Lions fan can tell you what 0-16 feels like.

September 8, 2009

Just a quick update that the Week 1 Sit/Start rankings are now available. For those who are in PPR (point per reception) leagues, you can now select PPR on the rankings page. This is a new feature for 2009.

Happy Friday to all. We're on the final countdown to the season so that's got me excited. A 3-day weekend also gets me pretty pumped. Amid all this happiness though is the report today from NFL.com that Maurice Jones-Drew bruised his thigh in last night's game against the Redskins. Reading the headline gave me an immediate "Uh-Oh". Not because I was fortunate enough to have a low enough pick to be able to draft MJD, but rather because I'd hate to see another "Brady-esque" type of injury impacting someone's season. It would be horrible to see someone's 1st round pick injured before the season even began.

September 3, 2009

Today was a good day for Michael Vick. NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell announced that Vick will be eligible to play beginning Week 3. Goodell's decision was well received by Vick, head coach Andy Reid, and Vick's mentor Tony Dungy.

September 2, 2009

There's nothing like Sundays in the NFL. It doesn't matter what league program you use. ESPN, CBS, FleaFlicker, FOX Sports, MyFantasyLeague.com, etc. They're all very good at what they do, but did you know that there's more to fantasy football than just regular fantasy football games?

I read one of the nicest reviews of the Nerd last evening. It's from Gene Wang at the Washington Post and he called FantasyFootballNerd.com the "Cliffs Notes" of the industry. Try and find a guy as submersed in fantasy football as Gene Wang. I think that's why his review of the Nerd meant so much.

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