Week 6 Where to Put em

October 13, 2011

fantasy football rankings
Where to Put 'em is the Fantasy Football Nerd's look at the best and worst matchups for Week 6 of the 2011 season. Decisions are based upon the FFN rankings and matchup analysis. Given the known conditions, these matchups are the ones to watch and/or avoid.



This list does not generally include the elite players that you are going to start regardless of matchup. You don't need us to tell you to start Aaron Rodgers, Andre Johnson, or Adrian Peterson. Where to Put 'em takes a look at other players on your team that we believe either have great matchups or should be avoided for multiple reasons. Factors like opposing defense, performance trending, and peer comparisons may influence our decisions.



Bye Week Teams: Broncos, Cardinals, Chargers, Chiefs, Seahawks, Titans

Put 'em In The Game: Eli Manning
We may not have Peyton any longer, but little brother Eli has been one of the hottest fantasy QB's over the past few weeks. The Giants are at home against Buffalo who haven't been very good at stopping the pass. In fact, only six other teams allow more yards through the air than Buffalo. With Nicks and Cruz looking pretty solid, Eli should be able to easily see 300+ yards and a score or two.
Put 'em In The Game: Tony Romo
Everyone seems to have an opinion when it comes to Tony Romo. From a fantasy perspective, he's fantastic. He's even better when he has his top receivers in the game which he will when both Miles Austin and Dez Bryant suit up against New England. As good as the Patriots are on offense, they are terrible on defense surrendering more passing yards than any other team. Fresh off a bye and going into what should be a shoot out, Romo should have a big fantasy day.
Put 'em In The Game: Mark Sanchez
This recommendation could come back to haunt us, but we're making Mark Sanchez our sleeper pick for this week. He hasn't played terribly, but he also hasn't played up to expectations so far this season. If there was a week to shine, this is it. The Dolphins give up the 3rd most yards per game and the 2nd most fantasy points per game to opposing QB's according to Fleaflicker.com. The matchup is a great one.
Put 'em In The Game: Cedric Benson
Cedric Benson is in line for a nice fantasy day and could make for a very nice RB2 or bye week filler. Assuming that the league doesn't suspend him, he and the Bengals will face a Colts defense that is giving up 165 yards per game on the ground and surrendering the 9th most fantasy points to opposing RB's. Cincy has just enough of a passing game that the Colts can't stack the box, which should give Benson enough room to hit the century mark on Sunday.
Put 'em In The Game: Ryan Torain
Mike Shanahan said this week that Ryan Torain should be getting the bulk of the carries this week. When given the chance in Week 4 before the bye, Torain ripped off 135 yards and a score on 19 carries. You're probably saying "So what? That was against St Louis." You'd be right, but he faces the Eagles this week and nobody gives up more yards on the ground to opposing RB's than the Eagles. Nobody. Torain makes for a nice play this week.
Put 'em In The Game: Peyton Hillis
People have questioned Peyton Hillis's toughness after sitting out a game with strep throat and hearing comments he made about asking his agent if he should play. We're not inclined to give any credit to those ideas. Strep throat sucks. Hillis is healthy and Hardesty has not taken his starting job away. The Raiders give up the third most fantasy points to opposing RB's and Hillis should still get the bulk of those carries.
Put 'em In The Game: A.J. Green
A.J. Green has been living up to our expectations this year. The rookie sensation has a beautiful matchup this week against the Colts who give up the 2nd most fantasy points to opposing WR's. Matt Cassel and Dwayne Bowe torched Indy last week and the Colts will have difficulty stopping the Bengals both on the ground as well as in the air.
Put 'em In The Game: Dez Bryant
We love Dez Bryant (and all of the Dallas WR's) this week for the same reasons that we love Tony Romo above. The Patriots give up more yards through the air than anyone else. With explosive passing games from both teams, we expect to see a shoot out during this early game. He's fast and talented (and most importantly...healthy). He and Miles Austin should spread the field nicely for Romo to pick apart.
Put 'em In The Game: Santonio Holmes
We recommended Santonio Holmes last week and he was able to finally see the endzone. Based upon the matchup, we're going to ride him for one more week. The Dolphins give up the 3rd most fantasy points to opposing WR's and Holmes should be in line to replicate last week's success. He makes for a nice WR2/3 or FLEX play in Week 6.
Put 'em In The Game: Aaron Hernandez
Aaron Hernandez made his way back onto the field last week, and instead of slowly acclimating him back, he was involved on the majority of the snaps. He went 5 for 56 yards and could have had more if he could have pulled in some of the deep targets. He had more targets than teammate Gronkowski which was unexpected. In what we anticipate being a high scoring, aerial assault, Hernandez should have a productive day.
Put 'em In The Game: Vernon Davis
Vernon Davis has been a member of our Stud List which made his 5 for 47 and 2 for 18 yard performances so unsettling in Weeks 1 and 2. He hasn't seen more than 4 catches in the last two games, but he has seen the endzone in both. In a passing attack that doesn't have any other legitimate options, Davis is it. The Lions have given up the 9th most fantasy points to opposing TE's this season and you can bet that Alex Smith will be looking his way often come Sunday.
Put 'em In The Game: Mason Crosby
If you have a Packer, you're starting him this week against the Rams. Crosby is no different. Aaron Rodgers should be able to throw all day on St Louis, so expect quite a few extra points. If the Rams can stop the Green Bay offense, you can bet that it won't be until the Packers are within field goal range. Crosby should do very well.
Put 'em On The Bench: Matt Schaub
Andre Johnson may be feeling better, but he's still not going to play this week. Matt Schaub will have to face the Ravens without him and nobody is tougher on opposing QB's than Baltimore. The Ravens allow the fewest fantasy points to them each week. If you have a safer option, this is the week that you're probably going to want to play it. Our expectations are low for Schaub in this matchup.
Put 'em On The Bench: Jay Cutler
Jay Cutler is a tough nut to crack. When we say "start him", he tanks. When we say "sit him", he goes off. Karma doesn't like the way we treat Cutler, but hey - we treat him better than his offensive line does! You can bet that the Vikings are going to do everything possible to get at Cutler this week, and frankly, who's going to stop them? If he can dump the ball off to Forte enough, he may see some nice yardage totals but we're not counting on it.
Put 'em On The Bench: DeAngelo Williams
One game does not make a trend. Williams looked great last week, but like the Wizard of Oz, if you pull back the sheets you'll see that most of his fantasy points came off of a single play. Take away that one play and we're right back to where we've been all season. It's the Cam Newton show in Carolina and a RB-by-committee approach isn't helping Williams. We're not ready to green light him yet.
Put 'em On The Bench: Earnest Graham
LeGarrette Blount may be inactive so Earnest Graham is one of those players that was heavily picked up on the waiver wire this week. In the event that he starts in Blount's place, temper your expectation. The Saints are not the easiest team to run on. They rank 10th in the league in rushing yards given up per game and that has come against guys like Adrian Peterson, Jahvid Best, Michael Turner, and Frank Gore. Graham is none of those guys.
Put 'em On The Bench: Brandon Marshall
Chad Henne is gone for the year so Brandon Marshall will have to visit Revis Island with Matt Moore. You don't get your own island without knowing how to shut down elite WR's and Revis is the best. That's not an opinion - it's a historical fact. The probability of Marshall getting the best on Revis is very slim which makes it awfully hard to suggest starting him.
Put 'em On The Bench: Reggie Wayne
Oh boy do we miss Peyton Manning. Without him, Reggie Wayne has fallen from his elite status. The perennial fantasy stud isn't even the most productive receiver on the team anymore (Pierre Garcon has claimed that title). Cincy allows the 4th fewest fantasy points and the 7th fewest yards to opposing WR's. When you combine the strength of the Bengals secondary with the fact that the Painter-Wayne connection just isn't there, it's illogical to think that there might be a decent day possible.
Put 'em On The Bench: Heath Miller
We've gotten a lot of emails about Heath Miller this week. Yes, he saw the endzone finally last week as Big Ben threw 5 scores. Should we be excited? Not yet. He's been average so far this season ranking 18th among all TE's in fantasy production. Just like Hines Ward, he just hasn't been as instrumental in that offense like he has been in the past. He has a great matchup this week, but until he becomes more involved in the offense we're tempering our expectations.
Put 'em On The Bench: Dallas Clark
Like Reggie Wayne above, Dallas Clark has fallen from his elite status. Clark is currently the 25th most productive fantasy TE in the game. 25th!! Last year we wrote an article titled "Brand Names Mean Nothing" where we compared the brand name guys to their actual production. Clark fits this mold. He has such a great reputation built up over years, but none of that matters now when you're deciding whether or not to start him.
Put 'em On The Bench: Adam Vinatieri
It's starting to feel a little like "beat up on the Colts" day. If we're playing the matchups and riding the streaks, kicking stud Adam Vinatieri is riding our pine. The Bengals have an incredibly stout defense and the Colts are going to struggle. If Painter and company can't get the ball into field goal range, Vinatieri's fantasy value goes down like the rest of his team.

Comments

Lutefisk
October 14, 2011

Here's a strategy question for you... I see you (and the rest of the world) recommend benching Marshall this week. Unfortunately, with Fitzgerald and Washing on bye and A. Johnson almost certainly out this week Marshall is pretty much the last man standing. I'm 3-2 with a tight game this week (on paper). Do I drop Washington/Marshall and pick up Manningham/Meachem/Knox/Ward/Moore for this weekend and the rest of the season? A corollary question is how much of the "bench Marshall" decision comes from his match up this week with Revis and how much is due to losing Henne for the rest of the season? Is it time to dump him regardless? Thanks.

Nerd
October 14, 2011

His QB situation and Revis both play into the decision to put Marshall on the bench. I wouldn't be ready to drop him completely from my team though, and if he's the only one I've got then so be it. Just don't expect much from him. Revis shut him down the last time they met and the odds are very heavily in favor of Revis shutting him down again. The guy is that good and he statistically shuts down virtually every elite receiver he lines up against. If you already had someone else on your bench, that's where the recommendation comes in to bench Marshall in favor of someone else.



Good luck!

jkimre1
October 14, 2011

On Ernest Grahm v. Saints run D... "They rank 10th in the league in rushing yards given up per game and that has come against guys like Adrian Peterson, Jahvid Best, Michael Turner, and Frank Gore. Graham is none of those guys"



--only problem is, the Saints have only played one of those. Gore and the 9ers. Haven't played Vikings, Lions, or Falcons yet. ??????

RudyRN
October 14, 2011

V davis or A hernandez?

Garcon or J. Nelson?



Decisions, decisions.

Lutefisk
October 14, 2011

Nerd, thanks for your thoughts. I just read Marshall's latest hype about expecting to get booted from the game in the 2nd quarter. As though I wasn't already anxious enough about having to start him. You sure Meachem and an old jockstrap aren't a better deal going forward? lol



Lute

Nerd
October 14, 2011

@jkimre1 - you are correct. Not sure how that happened - I must have been looking at the wrong screen.



@RudyRN - Even though it could possibly backfire, I think you continue to ride the hot streaks on those guys this week. Davis over Hernandez and Garcon over Nelson.



@Lute - Meachem could be a nice pickup, but I'm just not ready to give up on Marshall just yet. Too much talent and his schedule after this week isn't too bad. IF they can get him the ball, he can still score points, particularly in fantasy postseason Weeks 15 & 16 where he faces the Bills (4th worst pass defense) and the Patriots (worst pass defense). The downside is that without Henne, he risks becoming irrelevant. Remember Steve Smith (Car) with no decent QB? Sucked...but if you can get him the ball...wow!

R2D2's
October 15, 2011

I'm stuck with Nate Washington and Sidney Rice on the bench with a bye week...I have Santonio Holmes, Michael Crabtree, and Kevin Walter for two spots as my third spot is Miles Austin...Which two should I start alongside Austin? I'm thinking Holmes and Crabtree but with Jones out I don't know if I'm doing the right thing not starting Walter. Torey Smith is also a free agent in my league but he seems like a big gamble dropping Crabtree or Walter to pick him up. Any suggestions?

onehumpor2
October 15, 2011

Joe, I've got MJD, Matt Forte, Willis MaGahee, Stevan Ridley as my RB's. I know this is "bye season", but Hightower is on my ww wire.



Should I I drop MaGhee or Ridley for Hightower? (My WR's are pretty stacked)



Thanks,



Clay.

Nerd
October 15, 2011

@R2D2 - Go with your gut on this one - Holmes and Crabtree.



@Clay - Tough one. If I had to do it, I'd drop Ridley for Hightower.

Anthony
October 15, 2011

Hey What do you think about Daniel Thomas on monday night if he is able to go? Do you believe he will be able to go? Also Jay Cutler threw 3 TDs a game on the Vikings last year and they are giving up 270 yards passing a game.

Anthony

http://anthonyaltamura.wordpress.com/

Nerd
October 16, 2011

By all accounts, Daniel Thomas appears to be a "go" for this matchup. I don't anticipate the Dolphins having a monsterous passing game so they'll probably lean on Thomas quite a bit. I'm starting him in my FFN Users League II matchup this week.



RE: Jay Cutler - he may not be able to replicate those numbers with this season's offensive line. While I think the Bears will probably win this one, the Vikings will put pressure on Cutler. They're also coming off a 4-sack, 3-INT game from last week. When they faced division rival Detroit in Week 3, they got to Stafford and sacked him 5 times. Surely they can get to Cutler.

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