Week 3 Where to Put 'em

September 24, 2009

fantasy football rankings
Where to Put 'em is the Fantasy Football Nerd's look at the best and worst matchups for the week. Decisions are based upon the FFN rankings and matchup analysis. Given the known conditions, these matchups are the ones to watch and/or avoid.

Put 'em In The Game: Eli Manning
Plaxico who? Eli didn't need Plax last week against the Cowboys where he threw for 330 yards and 2 TD's. This week he faces the Buccaneers who rank 27th against the pass and 31st in points allowed. His FFN rank is #7 among QB's and he should produce 240-260 yards and 2 TD's against Tampa Bay.
Put 'em In The Game: Ben Roethlisberger
Aaron Rodgers couldn't do it, but Big Ben should put up good numbers against the Bengals. The Steelers have been known for their run game and defense. Passing has not been their strength, but what a difference a year makes. Pittsburgh is the 8th best passing team this year and rank near the end in rushing. Look for Roethlisberger to find Hines Ward and Santonio Holmes and continue his aerial assault.
Put 'em In The Game: Matt Forte
Matt Forte has yet to find the endzone, but that should change this week. Most experts believe he'll post double digit points this week. While his deviation is pretty high, his projections put him in at #5 among RB's. The Seahawks have a good defense this year, but they're 26th against the run. Frank Gore went off against them last week and I'm expecting Forte to go over the century mark as well.
Put 'em In The Game: Felix Jones
Marion Barber has said that he'll play, but his status is questionable. If he can't go, Felix Jones becomes an even better option against Carolina who ranks 28th against the run.
Put 'em In The Game: Steve Smith
Steve Smith (the one from New York) and Mario Manningham claim the #10 and #11 spots this week in the FFN WR Rankings. Tampa Bay is 27th against the pass and 31st in points allowed. You picked up these guys on the waiver wire so here's your chance to use them.
Put 'em In The Game: Greg Jennings
Never before has Greg Jennings been held to 0 receptions until last week. That should not happen against a St Louis defense that ranks 25th against the pass.
Put 'em In The Game: Vincent Jackson
Philip Rivers is running wild and Vincent Jackson is hauling in the yards. Jackson torched a strong Raven's defense for 141 yards and a TD. Miami ranks 23rd against the pass.
Put 'em In The Game: Dustin Keller
Mark Sanchez has looked brilliant in his first two outings and Dustin Keller has been an awesome target. The normally stout Titans defense has dropped to 32nd against the pass. FFN ranks him at #11 among TE's this week and with good reason. Expect somewhere around 7 points this week in non-ppr leagues.
Put 'em In The Game: Chris Cooley
Expect a healthy dose of the Chris Cooley show against the Lions. In the first 2 games of the season, Detroit has allowed 3 TD's to tight ends. Cooley has been the most consistent performer in the Washington offense so expect that to continue this week.
Put 'em In The Game: Neil Rackers
I normally don't care to offer predictions on kickers because they can be inconsistent and low-scoring, but Neil Rackers is a good option this week against the Colts who have given up the 2nd most points to kickers through two games this season. His #2 FFN ranking has a lower standard deviation than most of the other kickers and I like that!
Put 'em On The Bench: Brett Favre
Favre did alright last week with 2 TD's, but his role has been defined more as an elder and clock manager. Nobody will doubt his ability to hand off to AP, but it looks like the Favre from 2 retirements ago is long gone. It's time to retire him to your bench this week.
Put 'em On The Bench: Jay Cutler
I know I might catch some heat for putting Cutler on the bench after his performance last week, but he hasn't inspired any confidence in me after the first 2 weeks. He goes up against a Seattle defense that is 2nd against the pass but hasn't really earned that spot because they've played against the Rams and the 49ers. I could be wrong here and Cutler could turn in a strong performance, but play a safer option if you have it. Let's see what Week 3 brings first.
Put 'em On The Bench: Thomas Jones
Sit Thomas Jones? Seriously? Yes. As good as TJ is, he's got a ridiculously difficult job this weekend. His #30 ranking among RB's this week is due to the Titan's 2nd best rush defense in the NFL. The Titans allow an average of 49.5 yards on the ground and that just doesn't add up to any significant points.
Put 'em On The Bench: Cedric Benson
Cedric Benson was a monster last week against the Packers, but don't expect that same Benson to show up this week. The Steeler's 9th ranked rush defense will have something to say about that.
Put 'em On The Bench: Brandon Marshall
Brandon Marshall was a stud last year, but the loss of Jay Cutler and his poor attitude has turned this fantasy play maker into a dud. Nnamdi Asomugha will be all over him this weekend and Marshall is still sitting in the dog house. Given his #52 ranking this week, there are much better options out there.
Put 'em On The Bench: Bernard Berrian
There were some very high hopes for Bernard Berrian prior to the start of the season. Unfortunately, Favre hasn't been his old gun-slinging self and San Francisco ranks 4th in the league against points scored.
Put 'em On The Bench: Patrick Crayton
After a strong Week 1 performance where he hauled in 4 receptions for 135 yards and a score, Patrick Crayton was held to just 1 reception for 4 yards last week. Carolina is 3rd against the pass and Crayton is just too inconsistent.
Put 'em On The Bench: Greg Olsen
Greg Olsen was supposed to be a major benefactor of the Jay Cutler acquisition, but it just hasn't panned out. Whether it's a lack of targets or his inability to hold onto the ball, Olsen has become one of the worst scoring TE's in the league. Put him on the bench until he proves himself.
Put 'em On The Bench: Zach Miller
When you have one of the worst NFL quarterbacks throwing to you, you know you've got an uphill climb. Denver wasn't known for their defense last year, but believe it or not, they're ranked #10 against the pass in 2009. I hate to say it, but perhaps Miller should get used to the bench.

Comments

mrock
September 25, 2009

I love this website but you are way off on Thomas JOnes and Jay Cutler. GOLDEN RULE* NEVER SIT YOUR STUDS



Nerd
September 25, 2009

I definitely agree with the concept of never sitting your best players and I will concede that there's a good chance that Thomas Jones will surpass all expectations. Jay Cutler could very well have a fantastic game. I'm not betting the farm on either though.



TJ has the ability to pull off a big run and that's why it's tough to put a guy like that in the Sit 'em column, but let's be honest, the Titans run defense is pretty solid. Statistically, they're allowing roughly 50 yards a game on the ground. Statistically, Jones is going to have a tough time. Statistically, Darren Sproles, Reggie Bush, Steve Slaton, Kevin Smith, Ray Rice, and even Derrick Ward have better match-ups offering a higher percentage of success. Now, what happens on Sunday doesn't always follow the most likely statistical scenario, but I'd put my money on the numbers. We'll see if I'm wrong in less than 48 hours (it wouldn't be the first time).



In the same game, would you sit Chris Johnson? Now here's a guy who more closely fits the "Stud" label than Jones or Cutler. Believe it or not, CBS Sports made Johnson their Sit of the Week. It's not that he won't do well, but the odds are against him.



I love these kinds of questions. Thanks for the comment!

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