Fantasy Football Nerd

Week 12 Start'em - Sit'em

Posted: Wednesday, November 20, 2019


This is the Fantasy Football Nerd's look at the best and worst matchups for Week 12 of the 2019 NFL season. Analysis is aggregated from multiple sources including FFN. FFN rankings are based upon PPR (point per reception) scoring. Given the known conditions, these matchups are the ones to watch and/or avoid.

Please Note: This list does not generally include the elite players that you are going to start regardless of matchup. You don't need us to tell you to start Aaron Rodgers, Travis Kelce, or DeAndre Hopkins. Instead, we take a look at other players on your team that we believe either have great matchups or should be avoided for multiple reasons. Factors like opposing defense, performance trending, and peer comparisons may influence our decisions.

Start 'em Baker Mayfield (CLE, QB)
Go ahead - do a double-take. Yes, that's Baker Mayfield ranked 8th this week on FFN. He may have struggled a ton this year, but a matchup with Miami is too good to pass up. The Dolphins are giving up an average of 24 fantasy points and just surrendered 33.8 to Josh Allen last week.
Start 'em Carson Wentz (PHI, QB)
Wentz's schedule has been very tough. It will start to get a little bit easier this week when he faces off against the Seahawks who have given up the 10th-most fantasy points to QBs this year. Wentz is ranked 11th this week and should be a low-end starter for you.
Start 'em Derek Carr (OAK, QB)
If you're missing your QB due to the last week of byes or just need a streamer, look for Derek Carr to step up against the Jets who are giving up the 9th-most fantasy points. Carr has been averaging nearly 18 points over his last five games.
Start 'em Derrick Henry (TEN, RB)
Henry busted loose against the Chiefs in Week 10 for 188 yards and 2 trips to the endzone. Look for him to continue rolling against the Jaguars who gave up 17 points to Marlon Mack last week and double-digits to RBs all year including Week 3 when Henry found the endzone against them.
Start 'em Jaylen Samuels (PIT, RB)
Samuels (ranked 13th) starts the week looking like the better bet to lead the Pittsburgh backfield after James Conner (shoulder) left last week's game early. This is a great matchup with a Bengals defense that is surrendering the 7th-most fantasy points to running backs this year.
Start 'em Kareem Hunt (CLE, RB)
Need to take a flier on a flex-play this week? Give Kareem Hunt a shot. Nick Chubb will continue to handle all of the early-down work, but as expected, Hunt has been great on third downs. We wanted to see how they were going to use him, and his use in the passing game is similar to that of James White from New England. Hunt is a strong flex option against a Miami front that is giving up the 8th-most fantasy points.
Start 'em Calvin Ridley (ATL, WR)
Both Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley are inside our Top 10 this week and that should tell you something about this matchup and expectations for fantasy points. Nobody gives up more points to wide receivers on the year than the Bucs. After busting out a monster game last week, keep Ridley penciled into your lineup.
Start 'em D.J. Chark (JAC, WR)
All of Nick Foles' touchdowns this year have been caught by D.J. Chark including a pair last week in Foles' return. Chark has far exceeded expectations this year as a Top 10 receiver after 11 weeks. When he faces the Titans this week, he'll have a chance to continue that streak. They're giving up the 10th-most fantasy points.
Start 'em Allen Robinson (CHI, WR)
The top target on the Bears offense is also the only real fantasy producer. He struggled last week as expected against Jalen Ramsey, but he should bounce back nicely this week against the Giants who are giving up the 5th-most fantasy points including 19 to Jamison Crowder, 18 to Amari Cooper, and 28 to Kenny Golladay.
Start 'em Jacob Hollister (SEA, TE)
Here's a name we're not used to seeing inside our Top 10. Jacob Hollister has been on a roll in one of the most dynamic offenses. Despite a tough matchup with Philadelphia, Hollister's usage over the past three games warrants starting consideration.
Start 'em Vance McDonald (PIT, TE)
Ranked 7th on FFN this week is Vance McDonald facing rival Cincinnati. The Bengals have given up 18 fantasy points over the past two weeks to Waller and Andrews. If JuJu and Johnson miss this game, hopefully McDonald can absorb some of those missed targets.
Start 'em Cleveland Browns (CLE, DEF)
The Browns get an opportunity to play the Dolphins who have given up the 2nd-most fantasy points.
Sit 'em Jared Goff (LAR, QB)
It's difficult to trust Jared Goff right now. The Rams just aren't the scary offensive juggernaut that many were expecting. Goff is coming off a terrible game and his schedule isn't getting any easier this week against the Ravens who have given up the 8th-fewest points and have kept opposing QBs to 15 points or less the last seven games.
Sit 'em Jimmy Garoppolo (SF, QB)
Jimmy G has been a great filler for fantasy owners this year. He's right on the bubble of startability this week (ranked 13th), but the Packers have largely kept opposing signal callers in check surrendering the 10th-fewest fantasy points to them including an average of 13 points over the past four games.
Sit 'em Nick Foles (JAC, QB)
Nick Foles looked decent in his first game back throwing 33-of-47 passes for 296 yards with two touchdowns and a pick. Much of that came in garbage time, but fantasy points don't care when they get scored. He may struggle a bit with the Titans this week who have routinely kept QBs in the teens.
Sit 'em Joe Mixon (CIN, RB)
Joe Mixon is ranked 16th this week - and we think that is entirely too optimistic. Mixon managed to find the endzone last week which was the first time the Bengals saw one of their running backs score a rushing touchdown. Their season is essentially a dumpster fire, and even though Mixon will continue to get volume, a matchup with the Steelers is going to be brutal. They're giving up the 3rd-fewest fantasy points.
Sit 'em Latavius Murray (NO, RB)
Murray's fantasy value is intrinsically tied to Alvin Kamara's health. While the #1 RB has done incredible against the Panthers this year (Aaron Jones 27 pts, Derrick Henry 25 pts, Tevin Coleman 38 points), the #2 RB has done next to nothing (Jamaal Williams 6 pts, Dion Lewis 8 pts, Matt Breida 6 pts). So as enticing as this matchup looks like on paper, Murray may struggle here.
Sit 'em Jamaal Williams (GB, RB)
Typically a great flex play, Jamaal Williams should probably spend some time on the bench this week. The Niners have given up the 7th-fewest fantasy points this season to opposing running backs and no depth chart's #2 back has managed to see double digits this year.
Sit 'em Robert Woods (LAR, WR)
For those of us with Robert Woods in our lineup Sunday night, finding a backup was difficult when he was scratched prior to kickoff. In an early game against a weak opponent, he could still be an option, but a matchup with Baltimore and their 12th-ranked defense makes Woods no more than a potential, however risky, flex play...assuming he even plays.
Sit 'em Cole Beasley (BUF, WR)
The veteran slot receiver took a backseat to John Brown last week who absolutely exploded. Beasley hasn't been the PPR magnet that he could have been with Josh Allen so volume won't be enough to save him this week against a Denver defense that has given up the 6th-fewest fantasy points on the year.
Sit 'em Darius Slayton (NYG, WR)
This one is all about chasing points. Darius Slayton was a beast in Week 10 catching 10-of-14 targets for 121 yards and two touchdowns. It was his second 2-TD game this year and he has a good rapport with Danny Dimes but the Bears have been brutal against receivers this year surrendering the 4th-fewest points to them.
Sit 'em TJ Hockenson (DET, TE)
Even in a decent matchup, Hockensen can't be trusted - particularly without Matthew Stafford. He's caught more than three passes only twice all year.
Sit 'em O.J. Howard (TB, TE)
O.J. Howard was benched after he dropped his only target last week. Cameron Brate outplayed him and has essentially turned Howard into a fantasy bust. Howard is ranked 27th this week and is no longer considered fantasy relevant.
Sit 'em Los Angeles Rams (LAR, DEF)
A matchup with Lamar Jackson and the Ravens can be brutal. In fact, the Ravens give up the 5th-fewest fantasy points per game.

Comments

jamisdiablo commented
November 22, 2019

Thank FFN! Great takes for the most part (I can't start ANY Brown besides Chubb, maybe OBJ/Hunt this week, maybe; and I'll pass on ARob, no one throwing to him).

My problem is I have Cousins on bye and Garoppolo with a tough matchup. Considering dropping Garop and grabbing Winston for this week. thoughts? And do you sit Bo Scarbrough behind both Jaylen Samuels and Hunt? I'm going back and forth between Hunt and Scar (love both matchups of course).

Thanks!




Nerd commented
November 22, 2019

I think you can absolutely start Jameis this week against Atlanta. He's going to throw some picks, but I think he'll also be able to put up some decent numbers. Jimmy G has a very tough matchup for Sunday night.

For me, it's Jaylen Samuels, Kareem Hunt, and then Bo.

Good luck!

BIG CIX commented
November 23, 2019

In the flex do I start Joe Mixon or Darren Waller

Nerd commented
November 23, 2019

In PPR - I like Waller better, but in standard scoring, I'd probably go with Mixon.

It's helpful if you specify the scoring format. :-)

Good luck!

Ockb22960 commented
November 23, 2019

Wentz or baker?

clydehop commented
November 23, 2019

In PPR which 2 out of these 3 should I start? Singletary, Mixon or Michel?

Nerd commented
November 23, 2019

He hasn't played well this year and I know it sounds crazy - but I'd play Mayfield over Wentz. Miami is a sweet matchup.

Nerd commented
November 23, 2019

I'd probably start Mixon (hate the matchup), Singletary, and Michel in that order. Good luck!

Matthias commented
November 24, 2019

1) Start Kittle or Goedert? (Kittle’s making me a little nervous with his health...)
2) Pick up Howard or Conner For ROS even though banged up? (Have McCaffrey, Gordon, and White...). Would likely have to drop T.Y. Hilton to make room (have OBJ, Tyreek, Sanders, and Sutton)...really tempted by Conner...
Thanks! Sitting in 1st place at 10-1, and you’ve been a great help!

RaiderLuv4LIFE commented
November 24, 2019

Who do you thing today? Mayfield, Winston or Allen?

Nerd commented
November 24, 2019

1) I think there's a good chance that Kittle plays tonight. Personally, I'd take the risk and keep him in the lineup.
2) If it's possible to get Conner, he'd be a fantastic addition for ROS. I'd drop Hilton for him, but I wouldn't drop Hilton for Jordan Howard.

Good luck!

deibs81 commented
November 24, 2019

In PPR need to start Sony Michel or Tarik Cohen. Thoughts?

xtreme1 commented
November 24, 2019

James white or Davante parker? Ppr

jamisdiablo commented
November 24, 2019

Roll the dice on deebo or throw csamuel in instead? Thx!

Nerd commented
November 24, 2019

@deibs81 - I actually like Tarik Cohen in that one.

@xtreme1 - Ugh. I like James White but would go with Parker in this one. With no Preston Williams, Parker has been fairly solid.

@jamisdiablo - Gotta continue to roll with Deebo.

Good luck!

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