Posted: Wednesday, November 14, 2018
This is the Fantasy Football Nerd's look at the best and worst matchups for Week 11 of the 2018 NFL season. Decisions are based upon the FFN rankings and matchup analysis. Given the known conditions, these matchups are the ones to watch and/or avoid.
Please Note: This list does not generally include the elite players that you are going to start regardless of matchup. You don't need us to tell you to start Aaron Rodgers, Rob Gronkowski, or Antonio Brown. Instead, we take a look at other players on your team that we believe either have great matchups or should be avoided for multiple reasons. Factors like opposing defense, performance trending, and peer comparisons may influence our decisions.
Start 'em Carson Wentz (PHI, QB)
There's one common trait among quarterbacks who have faced the Saints this year. They throw a lot. Don't be surprised to see Carson Wentz throw 40+ times in this game. Also - keep in mind that New Orleans gives up the second most yards through the air each week. Goff, Cousins, and Flacco averaged almost 23 fantasy points. Wentz is a QB1 this week.
Start 'em Russell Wilson (SEA, QB)
Wilson's volume remains scary-low. He's chucked it 26 or fewer times in 6 of his last 7 outings. But he's tossed multiple scores in 6 of those games, including 3 TDs in 4 of his last 5 games. His rushing upside has also returned, with 41 and 92 yards in the past 2 weeks. Wilson is ranked 9th this week at home facing the Packers on Thursday night.
Start 'em Ben Roethlisberger (PIT, QB)
Normally, a QB facing the Jacksonville secondary would be cause for concern, but over the last month, three QB's have scored at least 27 fantasy points (Luck, Wentz, and Prescott). Big Ben has also had his fair share of good luck against them averaging a fantastic 30 fantasy points over their last two meetings. Roethlisberger is ranked 11th this week making him a low-end QB1.
Start 'em Aaron Jones (GB, RB)
This is the first time that Aaron Jones has cracked our Top 12. The Packers have finally unleashed Jones -- and the fantasy results have been big. He's carried 41 times and seen 11 targets over the past 3 weeks, racking up 343 total yards and 3 TDs. Next up is a Seahawks defense that's allowed 4.6 yards per carry to RBs this season.
Start 'em Dion Lewis (TEN, RB)
Lewis was a Week 10 fantasy disappointment in a game where Derrick Henry scored twice, but the 22 touches are still highly promising for Lewis' going-forward outlook. Keep rolling with him as an every-week RB2 when the Titans visit the Colts next. Indianapolis' run defense has collapsed since early in the year, and they also give up an amazing 10 RB catches/game over their last 3.
Start 'em Kerryon Johnson (DET, RB)
Kerryon Johnson produced 51 yards and a touchdown on 14 carries while also snaring six catches for 38 yards and another touchdown on six targets Sunday in Detroit’s Week 10 loss to the Bears. He out-touched Blount 20-6, and while he'll lose some passing work to Theo Riddick, Johnson is projected to see 14 touches and nearly 100 all-purpose yards.
Start 'em Kenny Golladay (DET, WR)
It's not looking good for Marvin Jones this week. Assuming he doesn't suit up, expect a heavy workload for Kenny Golladay who finally re-exploded last week with 13 targets. 10 of those targets came in the second half with Jones leaving in the third quarter. Golladay could be in for another huge workload against Carolina.
Start 'em Alshon Jeffery (PHI, WR)
In what should be a nice shootout, Alshon Jeffery gets a nice rebound week after putting up just 4/48 yards last week. Nine wide receivers have tallied 20 or more fantasy points against the Saints this year (PPR).
Start 'em Amari Cooper (DAL, WR)
The Amari Cooper roller coaster is still climbing after two weeks in Dallas. He is clearly the featured wide receiver for Dak Prescott and we're inclined to leave him penciled into our lineups against a Falcons defense that gives up the 3rd-most fantasy points to wide receivers this year. Cooper is a WR2 for a Week 11 matchup with Atlanta.
Start 'em Evan Engram (NYG, TE)
Evan Engram had a decent game last week catching 4 of 5 targets for 46. The Bucs give up 12.4 FPG to TEs the last 4 weeks, and he put up 6/62 against them last year.
Start 'em O.J. Howard (TB, TE)
George Kittle hauled in 9 catches against the Giants last week, and while we don't expect O.J. Howard to repeat that, he's still a good option here. He put up 14 fantasy points against them last year and New York has been giving up 13.6 fantasy points to tight ends the last four weeks.
Start 'em Arizona Cardinals (ARI, DEF)
The Cardinals have a sweet matchup with the Raiders this week. Derek Carr has been sacked a ton including 4 sacks/game over the last 3 games so a solid play against a dead offense.
Start 'em Wil Lutz (NO, K)
The Saints offense is rolling and that includes Wil Lutz who has made all seven of his field goal attempts over the last three games. Keep him locked into your lineup.
Sit 'em Mitchell Trubisky (CHI, QB)
After last week's monster game, it may be tough to consider sitting Mitchell Trubisky, but the Vikings give up just 15 fantasy points to quarterbacks over the last four weeks and he threw only 1 TD pass against them in 2 games. The upside to Trubisky in this one is his ability to get yards with his feet. He's ranked 15th this week, so use him if you need to but control your expectations.
Sit 'em Kirk Cousins (MIN, QB)
The other QB in Sunday night's matchup also carries a caution flag. While Cousins will have both Dalvin Cook and Stefon Diggs back, the Bears have given up less than 15 fantasy points to quarterbacks on the season. The Vikings offense is potent, but the Bears D is legit. Cousins is ranked 19th this week.
Sit 'em Andy Dalton (CIN, QB)
You may be surprised to learn that the Ravens have given up an average of 26.5 fantasy points the last two weeks to Ben Roethlisberger and Cam Newton. We anticipate Dalton will be without A.J. Green another week, and his production as of late has been disappointing (just 20 attempts last week). Dalton is a tough sell this week even in 2-QB leagues.
Sit 'em Adrian Peterson (WAS, RB)
In what should have been a plum matchup, Peterson struggled to get anything going against Tampa Bay last week - largely due to the injuries that have impacted his offensive line. With both starting guards out and left tackle Trent Williams expected to miss the game, Peterson is running behind a bad line facing a tough Houston defensive line. His volume should keep him in flex territory though.
Sit 'em Peyton Barber (TB, RB)
Peyton Barber is a bit of a desperation play this week. The matchup is actually fairly decent as the Giants give up the 8th-most yards on the ground and they've surrendered 27 fantasy points (PPR) to Matt Breida and Adrian Peterson in Weeks 10 and 8. Barber hasn't moved the needle much this year, averaging an underwhelming 3.7 yards per carry with two touchdowns (one rushing, one receiving) in nine games for Tampa. He'll be a touchdown-dependent RB3 this week.
Sit 'em Jordan Howard (CHI, RB)
Jordan Howard averaged a measly 3.0 yards per carry against the Vikings in the two games that he saw them last year. He hasn't looked particularly good as of late racking up more than 50 yards rushing just once over his last four games. His value has been diluted by Tarik Cohen who has simply been more effective. Howard is a flex play who will need to find the endzone.
Sit 'em DeSean Jackson (TB, WR)
DJax was active last week with 8 targets catching 5 of them with 62% of snaps, but he did very little against the Giants last year and he's not a proactive start with so many other guys involved.
Sit 'em Allen Robinson (CHI, WR)
Don't let recency bias fool you into thinking that with Allen Robinson back and fresh off a monster game that he is a must-start in fantasy. He put up a big day against a depleted Lions secondary. Expect a healthy dose of Xavier Rhodes and a tough Vikings secondary. Robinson is ranked 28th this week which still puts him into WR3/Flex territory.
Sit 'em Maurice Harris (WAS, WR)
A popular pick up last week, Maurice Harris caught all five of his targets for 52 yards in the Redskins' Week 10 win over the Bucs. He led the Redskins in receiving on a day where Alex Smith threw for just 178 yards. For Harris to be relevant, he needs Jamison Crowder to remain sidelined.
Sit 'em C.J. Uzomah (CIN, TE)
For a guy who saw 98% of the snaps last week, it was disappointing to see C.J. Uzomah not more of a part of that offense. He saw just four targets all game and caught three of them. Baltimore has been brutal on tight ends this year including Uzomah who had just 3 catches for 45 yards back in Week 2.
Sit 'em Kyle Rudolph (MIN, TE)
Has done little against the Bears in his last 2 games against them averaging 8.9 FPG. Chicago gives up a very discouraging 5.4 FPG to TEs the last 4 weeks. Rudolph is a touchdown-dependent TE2 this week.
Sit 'em Jacksonville Jaguars (JAC, DEF)
Jacksonville is averaging a pathetic 3.7 FPG over their last three games, and the Steelers are giving up just 2.3 FPG in that span. Last year's fantasy defense kings are ranked 19th this week on FFN.
Sit 'em Dan Bailey (MIN, K)
Bailey has only 1 field goal in his last 2 games. He remains tough to trust in a tough matchup on the road.